Found an easy 2–3% arb on Polymarket
This works almost every time when we have the same event covered by multiple different markets. This time it’s about whether X player will score at the World Cup
Let’s break it down with a specific example
We have 2 markets:
World Cup: Cristiano Ronaldo Goals
1+ goal — ~80 Yes
World Cup: Player to score - Cristiano Ronaldo
77 Yes
And the rules are the same
So we buy Yes where it’s cheaper, buy No on the opposite market, and take easy profit on resolution or when the price becomes fair
The main problem here is that there’s very low liquidity, that’s the only reason I’m sharing it here
And there are lots of same markets with other players too