I have a different thesis. Human psychology is such that exposure to elite lifestyles on a daily basis creates such status anxiety among masses they over-prioritize market activities (to boost consumption) instead of family formation.
More Births (@MoreBirths)
WHY IS THE FERTILITY CRASH HITTING URBAN AREAS HARDEST?
Since 2020, virtually all of the fertility decline has been concentrated in large metros (1.57 --> 1.46) while outside of large metros fertility has been stable (1.73 --> 1.70).
That leads one to think that housing is involved. After all, house prices have increased a lot since the pandemic.
But large metros have seen the smallest price gains since the pandemic! It is outside of large metros that prices have really soared. So its not housing prices.
Then why is fertility crashing in urban areas specifically? Two explanations stand out:
(1) The current YIMBY fashion of building high rise apartments is really bad for fertility. Large cities have been going all in on a housing type that is poorly suited for families.
(2) Politics. The left and right have sharply split in recent years on the question of having kids, with conservatives embracing family and liberals turning away. Where do liberals tend to concentrate? Big cities!
— https://nitter.net/MoreBirths/status/2068509304106238266#m