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Historic liquidity wave: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing to go public…

Brief

Chamath argues a historic liquidity wave is imminent as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic prepare to go public and lockups expire, projected to exceed the prior decade of venture exits. He says capital will shift into AI’s physical substrate—power, memory, copper and specialized silicon—because models will commoditize while compute and human judgment remain scarce.

Why it matters

Historic liquidity wave: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are preparing to go public and lockups are expiring; those three companies alone are projected to exceed the entire prior decade of venture exits combined (source: @theallinpod, published 2026-06-22).

Key details

  • Capital is likely to flow into AI's physical substrate—power, memory, copper, and specialized silicon—because Chamath framed AI as 'a power problem' and argued 'models commoditize, compute doesn't.'
  • Chamath listed six themes to watch: (1) the liquidity wave & the barbell, (2) AI is a power problem, (3) models commoditize while compute remains differentiated, (4) public vs. private trends are shifting, (5) can the US build a moat China can't cross?, and (6) human judgment as a scarce edge.
Source evidence

Chamath’s Liquidity takeaways and reflections:

The state of private and public markets is changing. In recent decades, companies have stayed private longer while competitive advantage deepens with scale. Now, some of the most valuable private companies in the world are preparing to go public at unprecedented valuations just a few years after being founded.

A historic liquidity wave is arriving as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic prepare to go public and lockups expire. These three companies alone are projected to exceed the entire prior decade of venture exits combined.

That capital will go somewhere, and right now the focus is on the physical substrate of AI. Power, memory, copper, and specialized silicon are the current key components. The AI model layer itself is competitive, and the frontier labs are searching for profit pools in application layers. Six themes carried across the room.

1/ The liquidity wave & the barbell
2/ AI is a power problem
3/ Models commoditize, compute doesn't
4/ Public vs. private trends are shifting
5/ Can the US build a moat China can't cross?
6/ One scarce edge is human judgment

Full breakdown of each theme, along with Chamath's takeaways from each speaker, here: liquidity.socialcapital.com