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France recorded a peak of 44.6°C (112°F) in Bordeaux on 2026-06-23; Jeff…

2026-06-23 · 19:40 UTC ·@dwallacewells ·1 min read

Brief

Jeff Berardelli reports Bordeaux hit 44.6°C (112°F) on 2026-06-23, a 4.2σ anomaly that nominally implies a 1-in-87,000-year return period — a number he warns is unreliable because it lies well beyond the station's records. He argues the event is virtually impossible without climate change and is becoming routine in the current climate.

Why it matters

France recorded a peak of 44.6°C (112°F) in Bordeaux on 2026-06-23; Jeff Berardelli labels it a 4.2σ event and calculates a 1-in-87,000-year return interval against the historical station distribution, but says that estimate is nonsensical because the value lies far beyond the station's all-time and June records.

Key details

  • Berardelli asserts the heat spike is "virtually impossible without climate change" and that in today's hotter climate such extremes "appear to be 'just another Tuesday'" — concluding "it's not coincidence, it's climate change."
Source evidence

“Don’t pay too much attention to the 1-in-87K recurrence interval for the historical climate.”

Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf)

Today’s France peak was 44.6°C/112°F in Bordeaux.
At 4.2 sigma - so far on the right tail - the return interval for the region gets wacky. So don’t pay too much attention to the 1-in-87K recurrence interval for the historical climate. Because it’s so far above the station’s all-time and June records, it falls way outside the distribution/ record that the numbers become nonsensical. But suffice to say that this event is virtually impossible without climate change. In today’s hotter climate however, it appears to be “just another Tuesday”. It’s not coincidence, it’s climate change.

— https://nitter.net/WeatherProf/status/2069499895405228159#m