The post spotlights a Polymarket market on whether Ukraine will recapture Crimea by 31 Dec, calling it a 32% APY bond. The author, claiming little geopolitical expertise, nevertheless estimates the true chance at ~1% (or lower), notes the price is 86¢ versus @tsybka’s 90¢ entry, and flags ISW map changes as the primary risk.
Author highlights a Polymarket market: "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by 31 Dec?" and notes a 32% APY bond opportunity.
32% APY bond on Polymarket
I’m talking about this market: "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by 31 Dec?"
I don’t understand geopolitics at all, but even the dumbest person can see that even with a peace deal, nobody is giving Crimea back
The real probability here is 1%, maybe even lower. The only risk here is ISW rigging their maps
I first found this market thanks to @tsybka’s post, he entered at 90c, while the price is 86c now