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Gary Marcus (2026-06-28) wrote “hard to see how anyone makes much money from all…

2026-06-28 · 21:53 UTC ·@GaryMarcus ·0 min read

Brief

Gary Marcus (2026-06-28) warns AI will be low-margin and costly—“more like the airline industry”—and calls pouring “trillions” into it likely unwise. He amplifies Xiaoyin Qu’s scenario that China could undercut OpenAI and Anthropic by giving away top-tier models and exporting cheap compute (cheap electricity plus Huawei closing the chip gap), driving inference costs from “hundreds of billions” toward “almost zero.”

Why it matters

Gary Marcus (2026-06-28) wrote “hard to see how anyone makes much money from all this in the long run,” likening the AI sector to the airline industry with “very small margins and big expenses” and calling the “pouring trillions in” probably unwise.

Key details

  • Xiaoyin Qu claims China’s playbook is to “kill OpenAI and anthropic” by providing free, high-quality models and exporting cheap compute powered by low-cost electricity; she says chips are the current blocker but “Huawei would catch up soon,” making inference cost “almost zero” instead of “hundreds of billions.”
Source evidence

hard to see how anyone makes much money from all this in the long run.

more like the airline industry; very small margins and big expenses

pouring trillions in probably wasn’t wise

Xiaoyin Qu (@quxiaoyin)

China’s AI playbook: kill OpenAI and anthropic with free great models. Make it free. Then use cheap electricity to export compute as well. Currently the blocker is chip but Hauwei would catch up soon. Imagine a world where instead of paying hundreds of billions to OpenAI and anthropic, you pay almost zero to similar level of intelligence with cheap cheap inference. What’s gonna happen?

— https://nitter.net/quxiaoyin/status/2071267999286530394#m