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Three firms—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—make almost all the world’s DRAM; a…

2026-06-28 · 22:38 UTC ·@aakashgupta ·3 min read

Brief

DRAM supply dynamics in 2026 are being reshaped by AI demand: three producers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) share a finite wafer pool and HBM—used in AI servers—consumes roughly 3–4× the wafer capacity per GB of standard DDR5. That imbalance has pushed HBM to ~30% of DRAM revenue while only supplying ~8% of bits, contributed to consumer/laptop RAM doubling in price this year, and left SK Hynix with essentially no sellable HBM capacity through 2026. Micron has reallocated wafers (walking away from Crucial) and locked multi‑year, prepaid contracts covering ~50% of revenue at floor prices above prior cycle margins, which the author argues breaks the historical commodity cycle. With HBM4 increasing stacking (12→16 dies) and buyers fronting cash, memory looks more like a constrained toll road for AI capex than a tradable commodity, a thesis the market may not yet have fully priced.

Why it matters

Three firms—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—make almost all the world’s DRAM; a gigabyte of HBM for AI uses roughly 3–4× the wafer capacity of a gigabyte of DDR5, so HBM disproportionately drains the shared wafer pool.

Key details

  • HBM already generates about 30% of DRAM revenue while shipping only ~8% of the bits, and that wafer diversion helped laptop/consumer RAM roughly double in price in 2026 as server/AI demand surged.
  • SK Hynix reportedly sold essentially its entire HBM output through 2026 and says available capacity is near zero at any price; Micron abandoned its Crucial consumer brand and locked multi‑year supply contracts covering roughly half its revenue with floor prices above past margin peaks.
  • Technical and demand-side trends will worsen the wafer squeeze through 2027 (HBM4 moving from 12 to 16 stacked dies); investors who treat Micron ($MU) as a cyclical commodity are mispricing it relative to equipment names like ASML and LRCX, per the author and quoted investors claiming DRAM could be 30–40% of hyperscaler CapEx next year.
Source evidence

Your laptop RAM doubled in price this year for the exact reason this is the cleanest setup in semis right now.

Three companies make almost all the world's DRAM: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. They build the memory in AI servers, your phone, your PC, and the gaming rig you just upgraded, all from the same finite pool of wafers.

Here's the part that breaks the model. A gigabyte of the high-bandwidth memory Nvidia's chips need burns three to four times the wafer capacity of a gigabyte of normal DDR5. Same factory, same wafer starts, wildly different output. So HBM already pulls in roughly 30% of all DRAM revenue while shipping only about 8% of the actual bits.

Every wafer that goes to HBM is a wafer that no longer makes the memory in your laptop. The AI buildout drains the same supply your phone and PC were counting on.

That's why server DDR5 ran up around 40% off the lows and consumer RAM hit price floors PC builders had never seen. SK Hynix sold essentially its entire HBM output through 2026 and told investors available capacity sits near zero at any price. Micron walked away from its Crucial consumer brand to free up wafers for the AI customers paying more.

Now the tell most people skim past. Memory busted every single cycle for 40 years for one reason: in every boom these three overbuilt, then dumped supply and crushed their own pricing. The buyer always won by waiting.

This time the buyers stopped waiting. They're locking multi-year contracts and fronting cash for guaranteed wafers at floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles. When the customer pre-pays to secure supply instead of grinding you down every quarter, the commodity dynamic is dead.

Which reframes the whole valuation argument. $MU trades at a discount to $ASML and $LRCX because the market still models memory as a cyclical commodity and equipment makers as the durable picks and shovels. The constraint moved. The scarce thing in AI right now is the memory itself, sold out two years forward at locked pricing. That looks closer to a toll road than a commodity.

The bear case is the one that burned every memory bull before: enough new capacity, or one flinch in AI capex, and those lock-ins turn into the trap. Except capacity takes years to pour, and HBM4 jumps from 12 stacked dies to 16, so the wafer drain gets worse through 2027 before it eases.

Memory stopped trading like a commodity the day the buyers started paying up front. The chart just hasn't caught up.

Damir Akaza (@Damir_Akaza)

Gavin Baker accurately predicted Micron's 10x run in 2025

Now he's making his next big call:

"DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year, every hundreds of billions of dollars spent goes straight to DRAM"

He calls it the single most important bottleneck in all of AI, above lasers, power chips, NAND or HDDs, Elon is even turning the TeraFab toward memory because he sees the same thing

Only three firms on earth can make the memory these AI servers need

"This is as close to magic as science can get"

And Micron just locked in supply contracts covering half its revenue, with floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles, the economics of the stock are not what they were

"If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, that discount is no longer earned"

bookmark it, one of the strongest memory theses for 2026-2027 ↓

Video

— https://nitter.net/Damir_Akaza/status/2071308072367055006#m