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Ethan Mollick (tweeted 2026-07-20) says his timeline was right and it is now "3.5…

2026-07-20 · 02:29 UTC ·@emollick ·0 min read

Brief

Ethan Mollick warns that, 3.5 months after his earlier prediction (tweeted 2026-07-20), the window for defensive preparation is closing: assuming China permits open Mythos-class releases and US/UK risk assessments are accurate, enterprise CISO teams have roughly six to nine months before those capabilities spread to malicious actors, yet he believes few have responded to red-team warnings.

Why it matters

Ethan Mollick (tweeted 2026-07-20) says his timeline was right and it is now "3.5 months later," signaling imminent changes.

Key details

  • If the Chinese government allows open release of Mythos-class models and those models match US/UK risk assessments, CISO offices have at most six to nine months to prepare before capabilities diffuse to bad actors.
  • Mollick suspects very few large-organization CISO offices have treated the Mythos red-team reports as the "red alert" they represent.
Source evidence

I feel like my timeline was right and now it is 3.5 months later.

Assuming the Chinese government will still be okay with releasing open Mythos-class models & that Mythos-class models are as risky as the US and UK say, CISO offices do not have too much longer to prepare.

Ethan Mollick (@emollick)

Curious how many large organization CISO offices have taken the Mythos red team reports as the red alert that it is. (I suspect very few)

Based on historical trends in AI they have, at most, about six to nine months until those capabilities become widely diffused to bad actors.

— https://nitter.net/emollick/status/2041893652234924237#m