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Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new…

2026-05-12 · 17:44 UTC ·@americanhousing ·2 min read

Brief

Nick Durham argues zoning wins won’t deliver housing quickly because the U.S. construction labor force is aging and undersized (ABC projects 349k hires in 2026, 456k in 2027; 41% retiring by 2031) and greenfield land and immigrant labor are drying up. He cites Austin’s 2021–2023 multifamily boom and 20% rent drop as driven by old‑code, low‑rise, edge‑land development, and pushes construction robotics and large prefabrication to sharply boost productivity.

Why it matters

Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027; 41% of the current construction workforce will retire by 2031, while specialty-trade wages are rising 4–11% and some firms pay 20% premiums to retain crews.

Key details

  • Infill is the only practical supply path in desirable metros (SF, NYC, LA, Boston, Seattle, DC, Austin), but mid‑rise/tower infill costs 2–3× per sq ft and depends on hard‑to‑staff, union trades (ironworkers, concrete crews, complex MEP, elevator mechanics).
  • Austin permitted the most multifamily per capita from 2021–2023 and saw rents fall ~20% from the 2022 peak, but those units were built under the old code on cheap greenfield land with an ~40% immigrant workforce; Durham argues zoning alone won’t scale supply and advocates construction robotics and large prefabricated components to cut labor up to ~90%.
Source evidence

> Construction labor force is too old and small
> Cheap immigrant labor pool is shrinking
> Affordable greenfield land is drying up

That's why we're building the future of American housing: infill homes built with 90% less labor, powered by machines, large components, and cranes

Nick Durham (@pnickdurham)

If every YIMBY in America won their zoning fight tomorrow, supply doesn't immediately come online. The construction labor force is too old and too small.

The Associated Builders and Contractors projects the industry needs 349,000 new workers in 2026 / 456,000 in 2027 just to complete planned projects. 41% of the current workforce will retire by 2031. Wages are rising 4-11% a year in specialty trades. Anecdotally, I know many of these firms are paying 20% premiums just to keep crews staffed. And again, there is zero accounting in these labor stats for increased production capacity.

This bites hardest in the 20 desirable metros where people want to live...SF, NYC, LA, Boston, Seattle, DC, and Austin until recently. In those cities, infill is the only path to increasing supply near where people work. Infill means mid-rise or towers at 2-3x the cost per square foot, built by the trades that are hardest to staff. ironworkers, concrete crews, complex MEP, elevator mechanics, all union based btw.

Austin is the example everyone points to as a zoning-reform success. The Austin MSA permitted more multifamily per capita than any major US metro from 2021 to 2023. Rents fell roughly 20% from their 2022 peak, the steepest drop in the country. But the units that broke the rent curve were permitted under the OLD code. The famous HOME zoning reforms passed in December 2023 and May 2024 have not been built yet. Austin also built garden apartments on cheap edge land with a construction workforce that is roughly 40% immigrant. 1) Permissive code, 2) greenfield land, 3) accessible labor, 4) low-rise economics. Desirable coastal cities are missing 3/4 of these ingredients.

So housing has two cost problems. Zoning matters most inside dense cities, where 95% of what you pay for a SF lot is the permission to build. But it's also in these places where construction labor cost is the most magnified. In the interior of the US, NAHB's breakdown of a new single-family home is land 18%, soft costs 25%, and hard costs 56%. The building itself is still the biggest line item, and it has gotten no cheaper to assemble in 60 years.

This is why we invest in construction robotics. The housing theory of everything says housing costs sit upstream of every problem in America. Zoning alone won't fix it. Construction labor productivity must improve. The answer is through better machines.

— https://nitter.net/pnickdurham/status/2054216186930344161#m