There's a mind virus spreading through VC circles right now. Follow the logic far enough and you end up in a place of utter hopelessness.
The idea is that AI takeoff is already in motion. The people who believe this implicitly think they can see the future, a la Nostradamus. The implication is that we’re powerless and should all just sit back and let the singularity envelope us in digital bliss.
It’s funny as the advocates of this argument have a few personas. Some are the Effective Altruist types who are extremely pessimistic about where this leads. I appreciate that they have genuine concern, although I don’t share their pessimism.
Then there’s the Young-AI-VC persona who’s made winning, early bets on AI. They tend to view liftoff primarily as a validation of their investment choices. These are the types who blame Covid for their career blemishes and their bright, shining genius for their AI success.
The other persona, and my favorite of the group, is the Singularity-devoted futurist. Personally, I don’t think humanity is at such a radical point of inflection, but I’d say that I identify more with this persona than the others. And please shoot me if I ever come across as smug as the Young-AI-VCs.
No matter if you view AI takeoff as positive or negative, the problem is that it’s so easy to rationally end up in a place of “there's nothing I can do.” There are some very smart, very credible people who have this view. Take Demis Hassabis, who is obviously amazing and a legend. He's one of the least bullshit, least doing-it-for-his-ego people in this whole space. Even he recently went on the record saying we're in the foothills of the singularity.
Yet it seems outrageous to me that many in tech are ready to concede human agency and declare that nothing can be done. It reminds me of the Austin Powers scene where the guy is 100 meters away from the slow-moving steamroller. Folks, we can get out of the way.
Even if Demis thinks we are at liftoff, he isn't sitting still. He's working his tail off. There's a difference between believing the singularity is coming and giving up your agency today.
Maybe if you think liftoff is happening in 1.6 years or whatever, that actually motivates you for the next 1.6 years. But the framing I’m seeing too often is different: “I figured it out a long time ago. It's all been written. There's nothing to do.”
That’s the virus. Because fundamentally, great founders need a deep conviction that they can make big changes to the world.
Without that, climbing the endless series of mountains that is building a generational company becomes almost impossible.