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This is 97% of winning in football - nobody knows what it is

2026-07-16 · 01:38 UTC ·Michael MacKelvie ·1 min read

Brief

Michael MacKelvie presents a data-driven talk (video, published 2026-07-16) analyzing how spatial control—both on-ball and off-ball—drives outcomes in football. Using a tracking-transformer dataset (linked), he compares shooting vs. space, formalizes a “winning space” metric, examines on-ball creation and passing-to-space workflows, and raises a ‘dark matter’ hypothesis for missing influences.

Why it matters

Michael MacKelvie (published 2026-07-16) argues that roughly 97% of winning in football is explained by spatial control—distinguishing on-ball vs. off-ball space creation—based on his tracking-transformer data analysis (https://stranger9977.github.io/wc2026-tracking-transformer/space.html).

Key details

  • The talk breaks into focused analyses (timestamps): Shooting vs. Space Data Analysis (00:59), Winning Space concept (02:57), On-Ball Space Creation (10:20), Passing to Space (14:20), and a ‘Dark Matter’ possibility for unobserved factors (16:45); Nick Gurol and John Mueller are credited for help.
Cleaned source text

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Background:

I have long wondered how the roll of space influences games...and sports, and I feel like people misuse the word constantly. Everyone is obsessed with "manipulating space" - wtf does that actually mean? How does on-ball space creation compare to off-ball space creation...and how do you define it?

Once you take a few steps into quantifying it, you realize how slippery it is. Nonetheless, I was pleased with our data analysis, which you can find here:

Quick thank you to the following folks:

1. Nick Gurol for help with the data analysis

2. John Mueller (for listening to all my questions and ramblings)

00:00 What wins in football…?

00:59 Shooting vs. Space Data Analysis

02:57 Winning Space

08:40 Ad

10:20 On Ball Space Creation

14:20 Passing to Space

16:45 Possibility - Dark Matter

Channel: Michael MacKelvie

Published: 2026-07-16

Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcqxf7_TsI8