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How Israel Plans to Beat Iran at Its Own Game

2026-07-24 · 09:59 UTC ·Politics with Paint ·1 min read

Brief

Politics with Paint's analysis (presentation) argues Israel is courting Somaliland — formally recognized by Israel in December 2025 with an embassy in Jerusalem — to counter Iran's maritime leverage in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. The video explains how Somaliland's ports and airfields could provide surveillance and a foothold, but warns of diplomatic and political risks, including Somalia's claims and pressure from Turkey and China.

Why it matters

Iran leverages maritime chokepoints — threatening traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and using Iran-backed Houthis to disrupt shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb — to exert economic and diplomatic pressure.

Key details

  • In December 2025 Israel became the first UN member state to formally recognize Somaliland; Somaliland has since appointed an ambassador and opened an embassy in Jerusalem, offering ports and airfields near Bab el-Mandeb that could let Israel monitor or counter Houthi activity.
  • The Somaliland pivot is risky: Somaliland is claimed by Somalia, lacks wide international recognition, and could face pressure from Turkey or China or domestic political shifts; Israeli airstrikes alone are judged insufficient and direct military action against the Houthis would be costly.
Source evidence

Iran has demonstrated that controlling maritime chokepoints can be as powerful as possessing a strategic weapon. By threatening traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and using the Iran-backed Houthis to disrupt shipping around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Iran can place pressure on the global economy and turn geography into leverage at the negotiating table.

This presents a serious challenge for Israel, which depends heavily on secure maritime trade. Directly defeating the Houthis would be difficult and costly, while airstrikes alone are unlikely to eliminate their ability to attack shipping. Israel therefore appears to be developing a different response: Building a strategic relationship with Somaliland, a separatist state located directly across the Red Sea from Yemen.

In December 2025, Israel became the first United Nations member state to formally recognize Somaliland’s independence. Diplomatic relations have since expanded, with Somaliland appointing an ambassador to Israel and opening an embassy in Jerusalem. Although both sides deny that a formal defence agreement exists, Somaliland’s ports, airfields and proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb could eventually provide Israel with a valuable foothold from which to monitor the Houthis and counter Iranian influence.

But the strategy remains a gamble. Somaliland is still claimed by Somalia, lacks wider international recognition and could face pressure from countries such as Turkey and China. Its future governments and Muslim population may also become less supportive of Israel. This episode explores how Israel could use Somaliland to challenge Iran’s maritime strategy, why control over global chokepoints is becoming increasingly important and how the partnership could reshape competition across the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

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Channel: Politics with Paint
Published: 2026-07-24
Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2xTiRq_bxA