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In bull markets stocks often become over-extended above the 40-week moving…

Brief

The post argues that during bull markets strong investor enthusiasm pushes prices well above the 40-week moving average, after which profit-taking plus a wave of shorting commonly reverses momentum and reverts prices toward the 40-week MA. The author recommends keeping strategy simple by watching this mean-reversion dynamic rather than adding complex indicators.

Why it matters

In bull markets stocks often become over-extended above the 40-week moving average as 'animal spirits' drive large rallies.

Key details

  • Profit-taking and increased short-selling typically reverse that momentum and pull prices back toward the 40-week moving average.
  • The author advocates a simple approach: monitor distance from the 40-week MA rather than overcomplicating trade signals.
Source evidence

During bull markets, when animal spirits are running wild, stocks run up a lot and get over-extended relative to the 40-week ma.

Then, profit taking reverses the momentum + shorts pile on and bring prices close to the 40-week ma.

No need to complicate things, keep it simple.