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Ben Bajarin states that even with projected growth in AI chips, available compute…

2026-07-31 · 14:30 UTC ·@BenBajarin ·1 min read

Brief

Ben Bajarin warns that, despite Epoch AI's projection of ~20 million AI chips in data centers today doubling every nine months to ~200 million by end-2028, the resulting compute supply would still be at most 1% of what's needed to deliver AI to every business outside China, and he claims this global compute shortfall will last for a very long time.

Why it matters

Ben Bajarin states that even with projected growth in AI chips, available compute "still won't be more than 1% of what the world needs" to serve AI to every business (not just every person), and he says the shortfall will persist "for a very long time," with China as an exception.

Key details

  • Epoch AI (cited by Shanu Mathew) estimates about 20 million AI chips in data centers today (2026) and projects they will double roughly every nine months to roughly 200 million chips by the end of 2028 (a ~10× increase).
Source evidence

And it still won't be more than 1% of what the world needs in compute to serve AI to every business (not just every person, every business) in every market except China.

We don't have enough compute and we will not for a very long time.

Shanu Mathew (@ShanuMathew93)

"Today, there are about 20 million A.I. chips crammed into the data centers that underpin the technology’s growing abilities and usage worldwide, according to the research firm Epoch AI. That figure is expected to double roughly every nine months, putting the world on pace to have about 200 million of the chips by the end of 2028 — 10 times current levels."

— https://nitter.net/ShanuMathew93/status/2083157108158005611#m