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In December 2024 François Chollet (@fchollet) predicted “there will be no wall,”…

2026-08-02 · 12:23 UTC ·@fchollet ·0 min read

Brief

François Chollet (Twitter/@fchollet) reiterated on 2026-08-02 his December 2024 stance that there will be no abrupt capability wall: if test-time search is the bottleneck, post‑training and TTA scaling can continue and he expects 10–100× gains, while technique-specific plateaus will be surpassed by new methods driven by research investment.

Why it matters

In December 2024 François Chollet (@fchollet) predicted “there will be no wall,” warned that if the only bottleneck is test-time search we’ll see continued scaling, and said the world was about to run out of GPUs.

Key details

  • On 2026-08-02 Chollet reaffirmed he expects post-training scaling and test-time-adaptation (TTA) scaling to continue delivering — estimating at least 10–100× improvements — and argued predictable plateaus will be overcome by new techniques thanks to strong research investment.
Source evidence

My December 2024 takes were "there will be no wall", "if the only bottleneck is test-time search, we will see continued scaling in the future", and "the world is once again about to run out of GPUs"

To this day, I do expect post-training scaling and TTA scaling to continue to deliver. At least 10-100x from current levels.

nitter.net/fchollet/status/187019…

François Chollet (@fchollet)

The limitations of specific techniques are predictable and correspondingly lead to plateaus for those techniques. But there is always the next technique, building on top of the pile that's already available.

There is enough research investment that there will be no wall.

— https://nitter.net/fchollet/status/1870194696477388836#m