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The different London murder data series are inconsistent and required joining…

Brief

The author reconciled inconsistent London murder series (noting Greater London began in 1963 and historic populations were reconstructed) to produce a joined trend. The resulting series shows murders have fallen dramatically since the 1980s: 207 murders in 1986 versus less than half that in 2025, despite population growth from ~6.7 million to over 9 million.

Why it matters

The different London murder data series are inconsistent and required joining; Greater London was only created in 1963, so historic population figures had to be cobbled together.

Key details

  • The author produced an attempted joint series that looks credible and shows a large long-term decline in murders since the 1980s.
  • There were 207 murders in London in 1986—more than twice the count in 2025—while population rose from about 6.7 million in 1986 to over 9 million today, implying an even larger fall in per-capita murder rates.
Source evidence

The various different murder series for London are inconsistent with one another (and, for example, Greater London was not created until 1963, so population has to be cobbled together).

Here is an attempt to join them together that looks credible.

Quite amazing how far murders have fallen since the 1980s. There were 207 murders in London in 1986, more than twice as many as in 2025. But the population was only 6.7 million then, versus over 9 million today!