ESAI Power

NYISO Energy Watch Market Update

2025-12-19 · 00:00 UTC ·ESAI Power ·3 min read

Brief

ESAI Power’s NYISO Energy Watch (quarterly; published 2025-12-19) presents a 10-year forecast for NYISO power and natural gas markets that blends ESAI’s fundamental long-term view with forward market prices for the early years. The report’s Near-Term module models Henry Hub, Algonquin, Iroquois Z2, TZ6-NY and Niagara gas prices and on-peak zonal power and hub spark spreads for Zones A, G, J and K. The Long-Term forecast provides zonal on-peak prices, long-term gas curves (including Dominion South), and detailed hub price series for Western Hub, AD Hub, Eastern Hub and NI Hub. Deliverables include spreadsheets with monthly on-peak, off-peak and 7×24 zonal prices and delivered gas points, plus fully disclosed assumptions on demand, retirements and planned transmission/import capability. ESAI also offers Capacity Watch and a Generation Asset Monitor that apply percentage completion probabilities to project build forecasts.

Why it matters

ESAI Power’s NYISO Energy Watch (published 2025-12-19) delivers a 10-year power and natural gas forecast using a combination of ESAI’s fundamental long-term view and forward-market prices for the initial years.

Key details

  • Near-term coverage includes delivered gas price forecasts for Henry Hub, Algonquin, Iroquois Z2, TZ6-NY and Niagara, plus zonal on-peak power and hub spark spreads for NYISO Zones A, G, J and K.
  • Long-term outputs include 10-year zonal on-peak power prices for Zones A/G/J/K, long-term gas price forecasts for Henry Hub, Dominion South, Niagara, Iroquois Z2 and TZ6-NY, and detailed hub power forecasts for Western Hub, AD Hub, Eastern Hub and NI Hub.
  • ESAI provides transparent assumptions (demand, retirements, planned transmission/import upgrades), spreadsheet data (monthly on-peak, off-peak and 7×24 zonal prices, delivered gas points) and a separate Capacity Watch that assigns percentage "probability of completion" to each generation project.
Source evidence

NYISO Energy Watch Market Outlook | Energy Watch

ESAI Power’s latest NYISO Energy Watch market update includes our current 10-year forecast for power and natural gas prices across the New York ISO. This update is based on ESAI’s fundamental long-term view, along with forward market prices for the initial years. The report includes both our detailed Near-Term and Long-Term outlooks.

ESAI’s NYISO Energy Watch Near-Term update forecasts include the following:

  • NYISO Gas prices for Henry Hub, Algonquin, Iroquois Z2, TZ6 NY and Niagara.
  • NYISO Zonal On-Peak Power prices for Zone G, Zone J, Zone K and Zone A.
  • Hub On-Peak Spark Spreads for Zone G, Zone J, Zone K and Zone A.

ESAI’s Long-Term NYISO Energy Market forecast [10-years] includes:

  • Zonal On-Peak Power prices for Zone A, Zone G, Zone J and Zone K.
  • Long-term Gas Price forecast for Henry Hub, Dominion South,Niagara, Iroquois Z2 and TZ6-NY.
  • Zonal On-Peak Spark Spreads for Zone A, Zone G, Zone J and Zone K.
  • Detailed Power Price forecasts for Western Hub, AD Hub, Eastern Hub and NI Hub.
  • Fully transparent NYISO Power Price forecast Assumptions, including Demand assumptions, retirement assumptions, and planned transmission upgrades / additional import capability.

ESAI Power is a market research and consulting firm that delivers focused analysis of the wholesale power markets: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. To become a client, click here.

Learn About Energy

ESAI Power continuously monitors and analyzes the power and natural gas markets in PJM, New York and New England. Our ongoing assessments include reviews of market conditions, granular forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy pricing, fuel input forecasts, policy changes, and how these may impact energy prices and generator spark spreads looking forward.

Learn About Energy Watch

** Energy Watch** is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format, which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices, along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points.

TM

Learn About Renewable Energy

ESAI Power evaluates ** Renewable Energy** issues, markets and trends in the PJM, New York, and New England market footprints. Coverage includes solar, onshore and offshore wind, hydroelectric, and storage. For each region, ESAI Power details the regulatory and market factors that impact the supply and demand balance for Class I Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and projects the supply and demand balance of Class I RECs through 2030.

Learn About Capacity Watch

** Capacity Watch** provides a quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (

TM

) is updated and presented with each issue.

Generation Asset MonitorTM