ESAI Power

PJM Load Forecast 2025 Update | Energy Watch

2025-02-12 · 00:00 UTC ·ESAI Power ·2 min read

Brief

PJM’s 2025 Load Forecast, summarized in ESAI Power’s Energy Watch briefing (published Feb 12, 2025), raises both Peak Load and Net Energy for every forecast year relative to PJM’s 2024 report. The 2025 update introduces a substantial upward adjustment for data center demand alongside a reduced EV demand projection and an increased Winter Peak growth outlook. ESAI highlights the near-term capacity-market consequences for the BRA 2026/27 auction and broader impacts out to 2030/31 capacity prices. The briefing also reports a higher Net Energy 15‑year CAGR and implied increases in 2025 load factors, models 2025 BTM battery storage additions with zonal differences, and provides detailed zone-level forecasts (MAAC, EMAAC, SWMAAC, Dominion, Western PJM, ComEd). ESAI’s Generation Asset Monitor supplements this with queue tracking, retirements, and project “probability of completion” factors used in capacity-addition projections.

Why it matters

PJM’s 2025 Load Forecast (per ESAI Energy Watch, published Feb 12, 2025) shows Peak Load and Net Energy projections higher for all forecast years versus PJM’s 2024 Load Forecast.

Key details

  • PJM applied a significant upward load adjustment for increased data center demand and a downward adjustment for electric vehicle (EV) demand, and raised its Winter Peak Load growth outlook.
  • ESAI highlights capacity-market impacts: the higher load outlook affects the upcoming BRA 2026/27 auction and has implications for longer-term 2030/31 capacity prices.
  • ESAI reports a Net Energy 15‑year CAGR increase with implied higher 2025 load factors, includes 2025 behind-the-meter (BTM) battery storage addition assumptions (with zonal variation), and provides peak/net forecasts by zone (MAAC, EMAAC, SWMAAC, Dominion, Western PJM, ComEd).
Source evidence

PJM Load Forecast Update | February 2025 | Energy Watch

ESAI Power’s latest ** Energy Watch** briefing provides subscribers with a full update

that was published a few weeks ago. Relative to PJM’s 2024 Load Forecast, the forecasts for Peak Load and Net Energy in PJM RTO are higher for all forecast years.

PJM’s 2025 Load ReportThis year, PJM incorporated a significant load adjustment for increased data center demand, and a decrease in the electric vehicle (EV) demand. PJM has also increased the Winter Peak Load growth outlook.

ESAI’s latest Energy Watch briefing includes analysis of:

  • **PJM RTO Peak Load Forecast –**including comparisons of Peak Load over the past five years.

  • **2025 Key Assumptions –**ESAI details the key components that make up the peak load outlook, and how they impact load [- positive, negative, or neutral] moving forward.

  • Implications for PJM’s Capacity Market– both in the upcoming capacity auction (BRA 2026/27) Capacity Prices and in the long term – implications for 2030/31 Capacity Prices.
  • PJM RTO – Net Energy Forecastchanges relative to the 2024 report, 15 year CAGR increase, and implied load factor increases for 2025.
  • 2025 BTM Battery Storage Capacity Addition Assumptions– long-term projections and zonal variations.
  • Transmission Solutions for Data Center Demand Growth.
  • **Peak Load and Net Energy Forecasts by Zone –**including MAAC, EMAAC, SWMAAC, Dominion, Western PJM, and Comed.

ESAI also closely tracks the PJM Interconnection queue and upcoming power plant retirements in our ** Generation Asset Monitor** report issued to subscribers every month.

ESAI Power continuously monitors and analyzes the Capacity, Power and natural gas markets in PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE as well as the MISO Capacity Market. Our ongoing assessments include reviews of market conditions, granular forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy pricing, fuel input forecasts, policy changes, and how these may impact energy prices and spark spreads looking forward.  To learn more about our coverage or request free trial access, please go to our Energy Watch product page.

Learn About Capacity Watch

** Capacity Watch** provides a quarterly analysis of capacity markets and policy issues that impact capacity price outcomes over a 10-year forecast horizon. Also provided is an evaluation of the outlook for the construction of each generation project in PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE and MISO. Every project is assigned a “probability of completion” factor in percentage terms which is then applied to develop a forward assessment of likely capacity additions within a particular pool. The impacts of new generation and retirements on reserve margin surpluses and forward capacity market values is updated and presented in each issue. ESAI’s project database (

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) is updated and presented with each issue.

Generation Asset MonitorTM### Learn About Energy Watch

** Energy Watch** is a quarterly analysis of market and policy issues affecting energy pricing dynamics over the next 10-year period for both the power and natural gas sectors. This analysis includes forecasts of pool-wide and zonal energy prices in New England, New York, and PJM, including forecasts of fuel inputs. Supporting assumptions are provided in each quarterly report. Forecast data is provided in spreadsheet format, which includes monthly on-peak, off-peak, and 7×24 zonal power prices, along with delivered natural gas prices for most Northeast regional pricing points.

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