you can be maximally long the tech and still skeptical of the price of admission on a given opp. folks who bought Cisco at 200x in Mar-2000 were right about the internet (traffic grew > than even bulls projected) and still lost 85%. right about the tech != right about the surplus
Author @saranormous argues that being strongly bullish on technology does not…
Brief
Author @saranormous warns that conviction in a technology’s long-term value doesn’t validate any purchase price. They point to Cisco in March 2000—trading around 200x—even as internet traffic outpaced expectations, yet investors later lost roughly 85%, illustrating “right about the tech != right about the surplus.”
Why it matters
Author @saranormous argues that being strongly bullish on technology does not justify overpaying for investments; being “maximally long the tech” can still lead to losses if price is excessive.
Key details
- They cite Cisco in March 2000 as an example: shares traded at ~200x earnings despite internet traffic exceeding bullish projections, and investors still lost about 85%.