The US just put the global carry trade on life support.
@Legendaryy on the show today: “This move by the Treasury is global volatility control. They want to lower global volatility, and that then should be helpful for the market to be able to go up again.
The easier translation here would be to say: We want Japanese rates to be suppressed so capital can keep flowing into the US through the carry trade. If that system comes under stress, we will intervene again to keep it alive.
But if the market is relying on the US now to intervene when Japanese rates are getting too high, that makes the market more fragile. The size of the carry trade would grow. That would make the intervention bigger, the potential fallout bigger, and that in itself could induce additional volatility.”
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