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Why Batteries Are Changing Faster Than the Industry Expected - Marek Kubik

Brief

Marek Kubik (Modo Energy interview/podcast) explains rapid shifts reshaping grid storage: two-thirds cost declines since 2022, CATL’s share falling from ~32% to ~20%, and a China-led push toward ~$50/kWh cells. He highlights sodium‑ion’s potential to mirror LFP adoption, evolving container/stack designs, the emergence of 16–18 hour systems, and supply‑chain price risks.

Why it matters

Battery storage costs have fallen by two-thirds since 2022, but rising lithium carbonate and other raw-material prices threaten to reverse that decline.

Key details

  • CATL's battery market share dropped from about 32% to ~20%, illustrating a fragmenting supplier market and an aggressive China-led race toward ~$50/kWh cell pricing.
  • Sodium‑ion is positioned to repeat LFP's rapid grid-scale uptake; innovators are redesigning containers (taller stacks, bigger cells) and 16–18 hour systems have already exceeded the previously assumed duration limit.
Cleaned source text

Battery storage costs have fallen by two-thirds since 2022 and the cell chemistry currently dominates the grid barely existed at scale five years ago, and the same disruption could be about to happen again. Meanwhile, the supplier market is fragmenting rather than consolidating and the biggest names today aren't guaranteed to stay on top.

Marek Kubik has watched these shifts happen from inside the industry since the early days. He joins Ed to explain why the balance of power in battery storage keeps changing, and what's coming next.

They cover

Why battery storage costs have fallen two-thirds since 2022 - and why that could be about to reverse.

The real reason CATL's battery market share has dropped from 32% to 20%.

Why sodium-ion batteries could repeat LFP's rapid takeover of grid-scale storage.

How battery container design is changing again, from bigger cells to taller stacks.

The battery duration limit everyone assumed was fixed - until 16-18 hour systems broke it.

Want to dig deeper into battery cell chemistry and pricing trends? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: How is battery cell chemistry changing storage costs?

Transcript available here: https://modoenergy.com/transmission-podcast/3a1ccf99-2b1f-4207-b7d6-bb9c4fe6e74a?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=marek_kubik&utm_content=article_page

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:50 Saudi Arabia battery storage market update

02:16 UAE 24/7 renewable energy project

03:18 Solar plus battery storage economics explained

05:10 Battery storage prices: are we near the floor?

06:38 Lithium carbonate prices and battery raw material costs

08:22 Battery storage cost per kilowatt-hour explained

11:07 China battery prices and the race to $50/kWh

13:36 Sodium-ion batteries vs LFP: the next chemistry shift

21:18 CATL market share and battery supply chain competition

26:14 Battery procurement trends and container design innovation

29:39 Battery storage service, warranties and spare parts

30:54 Lessons from a decade in battery storage

32:09 Long duration energy storage and the Ofgem LDES scheme

34:48 How much renewable energy storage is enough?

38:18 Flow batteries, iron-air and CO2 energy storage

39:32 Sodium-ion's future in grid-scale battery storage

🎧 PREFER AUDIO?

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/transmission/id1613338951?i=1000779824659

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4TgKdBsFYOtebUxfgUvv3Z?si=0283fdd65b354b7d

Music licensed via Artlist.

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Channel: Modo Energy

Published: 2026-08-04

Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pH-Tvba0o5E