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Paul Graham (@paulg) highlights that the graph’s alarming feature is the smooth…

2026-08-04 · 18:28 UTC ·@paulg ·0 min read

Brief

Paul Graham warns the graph’s unnerving element is its smooth, steady upward trend — comparable to a startup’s predictable growth but terrifying because it describes planetary warming. Zeke Hausfather forecasts a "record-smashing" El Niño pushing the second half of 2026 and 2027 to unusually high global-temperature levels compared to records since 1850.

Why it matters

Paul Graham (@paulg) highlights that the graph’s alarming feature is the smooth, consistent upward curve — likening it to a startup’s reliable growth trajectory — and stresses the danger because the subject is Earth’s climate, not a company.

Key details

  • Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) projects that the second half of 2026 and all of 2027 will see exceptionally high global temperatures driven by a "record-smashing" El Niño, with his latest estimates placing both years as extreme outliers relative to global temperatures since 1850.
Source evidence

The most alarming thing about this graph is not just the amount of change, but the smooth consistency of the curve. If this were a startup I'd be really confident about their future growth. Unfortunately it is instead the planet we live on.

Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

— https://nitter.net/hausfath/status/2083998233924079756#m