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TrendForce projects the DRAM supply shortage will persist through 2027; HBM bit…

2026-08-04 · 07:07 UTC ·@jukan05 ·2 min read

Brief

TrendForce's memory-industry report says DRAM shortages will last through 2027, prompting NVIDIA—which held a 12hi HBM4e Rubin Ultra baseline through H1 2026—to reevaluate HBM options since early Q3 2026 (HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi, HBM4 8hi). HBM supply and wafer-allocation limits, plus slower 12hi HBM4e qualification, threaten higher HBM prices and force trade-offs between per‑GPU capacity and shipment volume.

Why it matters

TrendForce projects the DRAM supply shortage will persist through 2027; HBM bit shipments are forecast to grow 50–60% YoY in 2027 but still fall short of demand, giving HBM suppliers sustained pricing power and likely substantial price increases.

Key details

  • NVIDIA began re-evaluating Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration in early Q3 2026 after keeping 12hi HBM4e as the baseline from 2025 through H1 2026; it is now testing multiple designs in parallel (HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi, HBM4 8hi) and has not finalized specifications.
  • Rubin Ultra's target I/O depends on HBM4e qualification: successful 12hi HBM4e mass production could raise I/O from Rubin's 8–11.7 Gbps to 14–16 Gbps, while lower-stack HBM designs would likely keep I/O at ~11–12 Gbps; some cloud service providers are also considering reduced HBM capacity on next-gen ASICs.
Source evidence

TrendForce: DRAM Supply Shortage to Persist Through 2027… NVIDIA Considering Downgrading Rubin Ultra's HBM Configuration

  • According to TrendForce's latest memory industry research, the DRAM supply shortage is expected to continue through 2027, and with uncertainties remaining in the HBM4e qualification timeline, NVIDIA has been re-evaluating Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration since Q3 2026.

  • While the original plan was to adopt a 12-high (12hi) HBM4e configuration, NVIDIA is now evaluating multiple designs in parallel — including HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi, and HBM4 8hi — and the final specification has not yet been confirmed.

  • Beyond NVIDIA, some CSPs are also reportedly considering reducing the HBM capacity on their next-generation in-house ASICs.

  • NVIDIA maintained 12hi HBM4e as the baseline design for Rubin Ultra from 2025 through the first half of 2026. However, starting in early Q3 2026, it began reviewing lower-spec alternatives. This shift stems from two major supply-side constraints: first, the overall DRAM shortage expected in 2027 limits the wafer capacity that memory makers can allocate to HBM production; and second, uncertainty remains around the qualification timeline for 12hi HBM4e and the pace of mass-production yield improvement.

  • TrendForce explains that NVIDIA's top priority for the Rubin Ultra generation is increasing I/O speed, with expanding GPU shipments as a secondary priority. If NVIDIA ultimately decides to lower the HBM specification, it is expected to do so by reducing the number of DRAM stack layers.

  • Ultimately, whether HBM4e can complete qualification and enter mass production on schedule will determine whether Rubin Ultra's I/O speed can be raised from the previous generation Rubin's 8–11.7 Gbps to 14–16 Gbps, or whether it will remain at the 11–12 Gbps level through optimized HBM4 designs.

  • Meanwhile, within the same product generation, the number of DRAM stack layers determines the trade-off between HBM capacity per GPU and the number of GPUs that can be shipped.

  • TrendForce also believes the final configuration will depend on memory makers' wafer allocation decisions. On the supply-demand front, HBM bit shipments in 2027 are projected to grow 50–60% year-over-year, but even this is expected to fall short of keeping pace with demand growth.

  • With these supply constraints persisting, HBM suppliers are expected to retain pricing power throughout 2027. The industry already widely anticipates a substantial increase in HBM prices. As a result, AI chip makers will face the dual burden of limited HBM supply and rising procurement costs — further strengthening the incentive to adopt configurations with lower HBM capacity.

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