My three favourite EVTOL use cases

I had the good fortune to see the Vertical Aerospace Valo perform a demonstration flight at the Farnborough Airshow on Wednesday. The eight propellers whirred, the aircraft whizzed around reasonably quietly for about ten minutes and then rotated 360 degrees as it landed. Luckily I was in just the right place to catch both the landing and a blast of wind from the engines as it did so. I don’t know how well the aircraft actually performed. No doubt Vertical’s boffins are pouring over the technical data as we speak. But as a spectator it looked good to me. Advertisement: So today I thought I would revisit the EVTOL* topic as I have not written about it for three years. * EVTOL = Electric Vertical Take-Off & Landing aircraft are powered by batteries In today’s article we will be looking at why I believe that EVTOL will one day be a thing. Then I will present my three favourite use cases for aircraft like the Valo. I don’t want to follow the airshow by writing a junior school-style essay about my big day out, but there will be some shots of the Valo flying around at the end. Could EVTOL really become a big thing? Technology tends to underperform against expectations in the short-term and over-perform in the long-term. Following walkmans the iPod was always going to be big, but its transformation into the iPhone and other smartphones became life changing for people all over the world. Virtual reality and the metaverse may go the same way. So might blockchain. And so might EVTOL. The Valo is particularly well equipped to be a success as it has a volumetric lift capacity exceeding other similar aircraft. That means it can carry suitcases and equipment as well as regular passengers. Aircraft like the Valo might also become part of military operations, which would create economies of scale transferable to the commercial model. It is easy to imagine Valos surrounded by a swarm of drones delivering personnel and equipment to the front line in Ukraine. EVTOL are much stealthier than helicopters because they are battery powered. My gut feel is that if EVTOL is to be a success in commercial aviation it needs to be a product if not for everybody then at least for the higher end of the mass market. It will need to be a vehicle that will be flown in by people who normally travel Business Class or Premium Economy. It will need to perform missions that make a tangible difference to ordinary people’s lives. Fortunately my three favourite use cases are designed to achieve exactly that. My favourite use case number one: life-saving organ transportation Imagine a patient is in hospital in need of a heart transplant. In another hospital 100 miles away a heart becomes available. EVTOL can carry the heart straight over a busy city to save the patient’s life. Stealthy electric aircraft might have access to straighter paths unavailable to helicopters, which could get hearts where they need to be faster. EVTOL technology can help save people’s lives. My favourite use case number two: the market share stealer & yield booster There is only one flight a day from Raleigh-Durham Airport in North Carolina to London Heathrow. This summer it leaves at 7.05pm and arrives at 7.40am. North Carolina is a centre of the biotech industry and demand to London is significant. Many of these flyers are bought Business Class tickets by their employers. There are good reasons to imagine that busy executives may prefer a wider range of arrival times. Earlier arrivals could help people attend breakfast meetings or get home in time to take their kids to school. Later arrivals could help prioritise sleep and rest, or allow passengers to put their kids to bed before leaving the house. The existing air service is fit for purpose but not ideal. Meanwhile at Atlanta 356 miles away, Delta and Virgin Atlantic have four daily flights between them, with arrival times in London between 6.25am and 11.20am. A connecting commercial flight involves a good deal of hassle. Airlines like Delta and Virgin Atlantic could integrate EVTOL to feed high yield traffic into their existing long-distance network in a way that helps passengers avoid hassle. Airlines with EVTOL might be able to steal market share and corporate contract traffic from incumbent American Airlines. Some passengers might find the case for EVTOL plus regular flight compelling. Some might be willing to pay. A demand boost could help sell otherwise spoiled seats. In some cases Revenue Management algorithms might see the extra demand and transform $5,000 seats on conventional planes into $10,000 seats. EVTOL need not generate revenue directly if it can support revenue growth elsewhere on airline networks. Using empty seats as a loyalty perk for shiny card holders might not generate revenue directly either, but it could be extremely powerful loyalty driver. Flyers already prize their lounge access. Shuttling around on EVTOL could become the new frequent traveller status symbol, keeping people buying tickets with their preferred airline even at higher prices than market rate. My favourite use case number three: the slow sleeper Some flights are just too short. Read more