Weekly Dose of Optimism #194
Brief
Packy McCormick’s Weekly Dose of Optimism #194 (May 22, 2026) curates rapid advances across biotech, space, AI, and manufacturing. The biggest clinical result: Eli Lilly’s retatrutide (TRIUMPH‑1 Phase 3) delivered bariatric‑surgery‑level outcomes — mean 28.3% weight loss on 12 mg over 80 weeks (≈70 lb / 31.9 kg), 45.3% achieving ≥30% loss, broad cardiometabolic improvements and no cardiac or liver signals; retatrutide is a triple agonist (GIP+GLP‑1+glucagon) with multiple Phase 3 readouts due this year. Colossal Biosciences announced hatching 26 chicks in a fully artificial egg built from a printed shell and an oxygen‑permeable membrane that obviates supplemental gas; the technique (pouring fertilized contents into the shell, adding calcium, ~18‑day incubation) is pitched for genetic rescue, therapeutic‑protein production in egg whites, and eventual de‑extinction work. SpaceX’s S‑1 disclosed $4.69B revenue (run‑rate ≈ $19B), +$1.13B adjusted EBITDA, Starlink generating $3.26B revenue with 10.3M subscribers and ~9,600 satellites, while the AI vertical shows $818M revenue but a $(2.47B) operating loss driven by $7.7B Q1 AI capex; SpaceX also disclosed a $1.25B/month Anthropic compute deal and plans orbital compute deployment starting 2028. Finally, OpenAI’s internal model (GPT‑5.5 Pro) produced a novel, externally vetted proof overturning an 80‑year conjecture of Paul Erdős by importing algebraic number‑theory constructions, and industrial startups SendCutSend and Amca raised $110M and $300M+ respectively to scale fast, short‑lead manufacturing and critical aerospace supply‑chains.
Why it matters
Retatrutide (TRIUMPH-1 Phase 3, Eli Lilly) — 12 mg produced mean 28.3% bodyweight loss over 80 weeks (avg 70.3 lb / 31.9 kg); 45.3% of patients achieved ≥30% loss; 65.3% of 12 mg patients dropped below the obesity BMI threshold; 4 mg gave 19% loss (47.2 lb) with dropout rate 4.1% vs placebo 4.9%; improvements seen in BP, triglycerides, non‑HDL, waist circumference, hsCRP and no cardiac/liver safety signals reported.
Key details
- Colossal Biosciences hatched 26 healthy chicks from a fully artificial egg — a 3D-printed shell with an oxygen‑permeable membrane that lets embryos develop without supplemental gas; protocol: crack fertilized egg, pour contents into the artificial shell, add ground calcium (embryo consumes shell), incubate ~18 days to pipping; intended uses include genetic rescue, transgenic protein production in egg whites, and long‑term de‑extinction efforts (e.g., giant moa).
- SpaceX S‑1 (filed May 2026) — reported $4.69B revenue (run‑rate ≈ $19B), $(1.94B) operating loss but +$1.13B adjusted EBITDA; Starlink Q1: $3.26B revenue and $1.19B operating income, ~9,600 satellites and 10.3M subscribers across 164 countries (~75% of active maneuverable satellites); AI segment Q1: $818M revenue with $(2.47B) operating loss and $7.7B AI capex; disclosed a second Anthropic compute deal at $1.25B/month for Colossus 2 and plans for orbital compute beginning 2028 (target 100 GW launched annually).
- OpenAI (internal reasoning model, GPT‑5.5 Pro) produced a verified original proof resolving Erdős's planar unit‑distance problem by constructing an infinite family beating the grid using algebraic number theory (infinite class field towers / Golod–Shafarevich); estimated compute cost ~ $1,000 in tokens; external reviewers include Tim Gowers and Will Sawin, with endorsements from Noga Alon, Melanie Wood and Arul Shankar; full proof released as public PDF.
- Manufacturing & supply chain funding — SendCutSend raised $110M at a $1B valuation (company ~ $200M revenue, 100% YoY growth, ≈ $275K revenue per employee); Amca raised $300M+ at $1B+ to modernize factories (claims 67% faster deliveries for aerospace/defense customers including BAE, Airbus, Textron, Honeywell, GE).