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@deredleritt3r (posted 2026-08-06 01

2026-08-06 · 01:19 UTC ·@deredleritt3r ·2 min read

Brief

@deredleritt3r (2026-08-06) argues AI will likely plateau well above human intelligence, with robotics next, and calls for vigilance against catastrophic risks, imperfect mitigation (citing COVID), and the dangers of power concentration. They outline trade‑offs (authoritarian AI, rogue/terrorist AGI, geopolitical coercion) yet conclude AI's benefits will be net positive.

Why it matters

@deredleritt3r (posted 2026-08-06 01:19:11+00:00) believes AI progress will likely plateau 'significantly above the upper bound of human intelligence' and predicts robotics will be the next major frontier.

Key details

  • They urge active vigilance for catastrophic risks, advocating popularizing that worldview to build resilience, acknowledging mitigation will be imperfect (citing COVID), and warning that concentration of power could produce authoritarian AI while humans may not remain fully in control.
  • They highlight hard trade-offs: mitigating one risk can increase others (overallocated resources, closed controls enabling an 'AI‑powered 1984', failing to control AGI risking terrorists/rogue states, or excessive brakes strengthening Xi Jinping), but maintain that AI's benefits will outweigh the costs; Andy Masley urged people to clarify their own beliefs.
Source evidence

What I believe about AI progress: ⤴️⤴️⤴️

What I believe about where it might plateau: Probably significantly above the upper bound of human intelligence. Robotics is next. The world will change significantly, but there is no way to accurately predict "change to what" and on which timeline. Sci-fi will likely become reality, but unclear which authors/works exactly; best suspend disbelief.

What I believe we should be collectively doing: We should be on the look-out for catastrophic risks. Once a particular catastrophic risk becomes tangible, we should do our best to mitigate it, operating with the knowledge that mitigation measures will not always be 100% effective (think back to COVID). We should popularize the worldview regarding AI progress expressed above, because that will help society to become more resilient (the first step to fixing a problem is to admit that it exists). We should take the prospect of concentration of power leading to authoritarian AI much more seriously. We should steel ourselves. We should be mentally prepared for the (IMO) inevitable outcome that we will not always be in full control of AI.

Also: Many of the measures that we might consider taking to combat AI-related risks amount to just moving a slider away from one risk and towards another. Overallocate resources to one risk, be left with too little gas in the tank to combat another. Mitigate a risk in a closed and power-concentrating way, move closer to an AI-powered 1984. But fail to implement some controls in time, and be faced with ceding your future to a terrorist organization or rogue state armed with AGI. Step on the brakes too much, get ready to kowtow to Xi Jinping's bidding. No, none of this is easy; there are no easy answers; it isn't even always easy to figure out which questions to ask. Yes, we will have to nonetheless navigate through this uncertainty somehow. And yes, I sincerely believe that the benefits of AI will wind up being more than worth it.

Andy Masley (@AndyMasley)

I think it's a good time to, if you haven't yet, try to figure out what you actually believe about AI progress separate from what's convenient or how you'd like to be seen, where it might plateau, and what that implies we should be collectively doing. I don't have clear answers myself, but I'm surprised by the number of people I meet who don't seem to have seriously wrestled with the question in the first place.

— https://nitter.net/AndyMasley/status/2085167063086043377#m