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@FundaAI projects SpaceX will bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next…

2026-08-04 · 21:10 UTC ·@patrick_oshag ·1 min read

Brief

Patrick OShaughnessy's July/August 2026 conversation with Gavin Baker covers the gap between market sentiment and on-the-ground AI buildout: rising GPU prices, financing the expansion (cash flow vs. debt), Claude's market influence, memory supply pressures, Nvidia strategy, China/open source, regulation, and SpaceX's bold compute ambitions including the 8 GW in 18 months claim.

Why it matters

@FundaAI projects SpaceX will bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months; Gavin Baker called that outcome "truly incredible" but warned interest rates have risen since SpaceX signed its last contracts.

Key details

  • Baker states that only the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX have each added more than 500 megawatts of power in a year, and asserts SpaceX has "brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost."
Source evidence

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions:

“A Substack writer, @FundaAI, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months.

I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.”

“To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX.

SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

Video

Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag)

My seventh conversation with @GavinSBaker.

It's about the gap between what the market is doing and what companies are seeing. It's been a tough month or so for public AI names, but there's no sign of a slowdown on the ground in Silicon Valley.

We discuss:
- Why old GPUs are getting more expensive
- Open source vs the frontier
- Claude as Wall Street's Walter Cronkite
- Whether the buildout gets funded out of cash flow or debt
- SpaceX as a data center company
- And more

Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:17 AI Selloff vs. Fundamentals
10:20 Financing the AI Buildout
18:18 GPU Prices Keep Rising
24:23 Claude Moves Markets
29:01 What Could Break the Thesis
36:59 The Memory Supply War
42:08 Nvidia’s New Playbook
50:14 China and Open Source
61:51 Data Centers and Regulation
71:11 SpaceX and Orbital Compute

Video

— https://nitter.net/patrick_oshag/status/2084610308279288141#m