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Author (@plur_daddy) notes a weekend hardline Iranian counter to…

2026-05-13 · 13:18 UTC ·@plur_daddy ·2 min read

Brief

A speculative Trump–China–Iran deal scenario: @plur_daddy argues that recent events (a weekend Iranian hardline counter, a Reuters-confirmed US–China affirmation that transit through the Strait of Hormuz should be free and open, and last-minute inclusion of NVIDIA CEO Jensen on a China trip) point to a coordinated Chinese play to extract major concessions from the US while reining in Iran. The author reasons China, as a leading buyer of Iranian crude and supplier of critical goods and military hardware, can influence Tehran and would prefer Hormuz open to protect global trade. In exchange for Beijing using that influence, the US could drop tariffs, supply NVDA chips and offer subtle Taiwan shifts; those outcomes — Hormuz reopening, tariff relief, and expanded NVDA sales to China — would be highly bullish for equities, the author warns, even as it would be an own-goal in the AI competition.

Why it matters

Author (@plur_daddy) notes a weekend hardline Iranian counter to nuclear/negotiations progress and argues it could have been orchestrated by China to maximize Xi's leverage into talks, exploiting splits between the IRGC and Iran's civilian government and timed to avoid attacks before Xi's summit (post dated 2026-05-13).

Key details

  • The author cites a Reuters report in which the US and China affirmed that transit through the Strait of Hormuz should be 'free and open'—taken as a clear signal of Beijing's priorities for maritime stability or leverage management.
  • The author claims China has leverage over Iran because it is a principal buyer of Iranian crude and supplier of goods, funds and military hardware, so Beijing could both pressure Tehran and extract concessions from the US in return for restraining Iran.
  • Proposed deal contours: China helps rein in Iran (plus token issues like rare earths); the US (Trump) drops tariffs, supplies NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and makes subtle Taiwan shifts; Jensen (NVIDIA CEO) was reportedly added last-minute to the China trip—if realized this would reopen Hormuz, remove tariffs and expand NVDA China sales, producing three simultaneous bullish equity catalysts.
Source evidence

Can Trump save the day on Iran with a China deal?

Posting about geopolitics is the easiest way to instantly look like a moron but I will throw out a highly bullish scenario that has been coalescing for me.

  1. Over the weekend we got a surprisingly hardline counter from Iran, seemingly walking back weeks of progress in the talks. This was chalked up to the split camps with Iran (IRGC vs. civilian gov). What if this was Iran doing China's bidding, to maximize Xi's leverage into the talks? The timing is uncanny. If I were China, this is exactly what I would do. There was no cost to Iran since clearly there were not going to be any attacks right before the Xi summit.

  2. Yesterday we got an article in Reuters that the US and China have agreed that transit through Hormuz should be free and open. Most notably, the US statement was affirmed by the Chinese. This is strong signal on what the Chinese are thinking.

  3. What do the Chinese want? You can make a strong case either way. The bearish view is that China wants Iran to control Hormuz because then they have de facto control over it. They can use that to isolate countries diplomatically. Iran controlling Hormuz represents a massive weakening of the US naval guarantee and imperial prestige. And if it spirals out into a full on ground war, that massively sucks US resources and opens up The bullish view is that China needs the spice to flow, and anything that negatively impacts global growth is bad for them as the world's factory. The damage to the US interests has already been done but a spiraling energy crisis could get very bad for China. Also Iran's geopolitical priorities (such as isolating Israel) are different from China's.

  4. Overall I've come to the conclusion that China prefers for Hormuz to be open and free, but they want to max extract from Trump in exchange for helping out. Xi gets to tout a big diplomatic win. Of course China doesn't have infinite leverage over Iran, but they have meaningful influence given they are the main buyer of their crude oil and thus the source of funds, and also of key goods and military hardware, and other forms of support.

  5. You can see the contours of a deal here. China helps with Iran, and throws in other token issues like rare earths. US drops tariffs (which have been weakened by the SCOTUS anyways), gives them NVDA chips, and perhaps some subtle shifts on Taiwan. Note that Jensen was not going on the trip, and then was added at the last minute. This is signal that his presence was specifically requested by China.

  6. If this deal comes together, we have the combination of 3 bullish events for the equity index at once. We have Hormuz reopening. We have tariffs being dropped. We have NVDA expanding sales into China. Put the geopolitics of the AI race aside, because clearly this is a massive own goal from that perspective, but I'm focusing on how the market is going to respond. This is a scenario, not a certainty, but there is a lot of logic to it. It's a win-win on both sides. It would be tremendously bullish.