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Battery Energy Storage in the US - The Forward Outlook: Livestream

2026-08-06 · 19:24 UTC ·Modo Energy ·2 min read

Brief

Modo Energy livestream presentation (Quentin Scrimshire and Brandt Vermillion) delivers a market‑by‑market forward outlook for U.S. battery storage to 2041. The talk couples $100B of announced investment and a projected tripling of capacity by 2030 with node‑level revenue stacks, a house‑view matrix across seven ISOs, and focused analysis of ERCOT's 5 GW peak increase and ~8× revenue decline.

Why it matters

Modo Energy reports roughly $100 billion of announced investment in U.S. battery storage and expects installed capacity to triple by 2030; their forward outlook models market outcomes out to 2041 across seven ISOs (ERCOT, CAISO, PJM, MISO, SPP, ISO‑NE, NYISO).

Key details

  • ERCOT experienced about a 5 GW rise in peak demand between 2024 and 2026 while trailing battery revenues dropped roughly 8× versus a couple of years earlier; the livestream links this collapse to changing market dynamics including RTC+B impacts and ancillary‑service saturation.
  • The presentation produced market‑specific revenue stacks and a 'house view' matrix, highlighting drivers such as PJM's 'law of big numbers', MISO thermal retirements and the ERIS program, SPP West interconnection queue reform, New England's Clean Peak credits, and western gas‑turbine cost inflation.
Source evidence

$100 billion of announced investment, installed capacity tripling by 2030, and a five gigawatt jump in ERCOT peak load in just two years. But battery revenues in ERCOT are down roughly 8x from a couple of years ago. So what does the investment case actually look like across the seven US ISOs?

Quentin Scrimshire (CEO and cofounder of Modo Energy) and Brandt Vermillion (US research and analysis lead) walk through Modo's forward outlook for US battery storage, market by market, out to 2041.

What we cover:

Load growth and the data center queue: what's realistic vs what's stated
The policy backdrop: tariffs, made in America rules, IRA credit sunsetting
Why battery revenues in ERCOT collapsed in 2025 and 2026
The state of deployment across ERCOT, CAISO, PJM, MISO, SPP, ISO-NE, and NYISO
Revenue stacks to 2041 across representative nodes
The Modo house view matrix on every US ISO
Eight charts we're watching: ERCOT peak demand, gas turbine cost inflation, PJM's law of big numbers, MISO's ERIS program, SPP West and queue reform, New England's Clean Peak credits, and scenario ranges
Q&A: ancillary service saturation, why developers keep committing when projects don't pencil, and the impact of RTC+B in ERCOT

Chapters:
00:00 Welcome and agenda
00:32 Load growth: what we've never seen before in power systems
02:40 The policy backdrop
03:18 Demand backlash and data center moratoria
04:48 Cost and trade headwinds
05:32 Lithium ion pack prices keep falling
06:03 Capital flows: $100B and counting
06:42 State of the market: the seven US ISOs
07:50 ERCOT case study: peak load in 2024 vs 2026
10:06 Net load ramps and battery discharge
11:50 Trailing 12 months of battery revenue across ISOs
15:01 Forward outlook: Made in America (with a question mark)
17:13 Modeling in a "vibe space" policy environment
18:40 Installed capacity: tripling by 2030
19:32 ERCOT cycles and the long-term investment thesis
21:50 Revenue stacks to 2041 across representative nodes
25:04 The Modo house view matrix
27:56 8 charts we're watching
28:10 ERCOT peak demand: house view vs the queue
31:29 Gas turbine costs and the western supply squeeze
33:15 PJM: the law of big numbers
34:28 MISO: thermal retirements and the ERIS program
36:20 SPP West and interconnection queue reform
39:56 New England: Clean Peak credits
41:50 Scenario ranges and why zonal matters
42:18 Q&A: are ancillary services coming back?
43:28 Q&A: why keep building if projects don't pencil?
49:03 Q&A: how RTC+B has impacted ERCOT revenues
51:57 Wrap-up

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Channel: Modo Energy
Published: 2026-08-06
Video URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=db3wlmvP2MM