These are the 2023 and early 2024 views I updated based on new evidence. LLMs did in fact represent considerable progress, as a foundation.
François Chollet (@fchollet)
These are all true simultaneously:
- Scaling up deep learning will keep paying off (unlock more applications, or higher performance on existing ones).
- Scaling up deep learning isn't the path to AGI.
- We aren't particularly close to AGI, and LLMs did not represent a step closer.
- We're not anywhere near full deployment of existing deep learning techniques. A huge amount of value remains to be created with the tech we already have.
— https://nitter.net/fchollet/status/1785727866690547829#m