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Data-center capex is projected to rise from 1.4% of US GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in…

2026-08-06 · 14:53 UTC ·@michaeljburry ·1 min read

Brief

Torsten Slok at Apollo highlights data-center capex jumping from 1.4% of US GDP in 2025 to 3.1% by 2027 (a 1.7 pp rise, ~0.85 pp/year). That pace outstrips housing’s fastest build and telecom’s cycle; Slok cautions the greater macro risk is a comparable-speed unwind if AI demand falls short.

Why it matters

Data-center capex is projected to rise from 1.4% of US GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027 — a 1.7 percentage-point increase, roughly 0.85 percentage points per year (Torsten Slok, Apollo).

Key details

  • The 0.85 pp/year build rate is about twice housing’s fastest phase (0.5 pp/year from 2002–2005) and far above telecom’s ~0.15 pp/year, implying the AI-driven cycle is materially faster than prior tech/housing booms.
  • Slok warns the macro risk is the unwind: housing’s drop from 6.2% (early 2006) to 3.0% (end-2008) deepened that recession, and a similar ~0.85 pp/year reversal in data-center spending would pose major downside if AI demand disappoints.
Source evidence

Torsten Slok at Apollo has three great charts today.

"Data-center capex adds 1.7 percentage points in just two years, from 1.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027, or roughly 0.85 percentage points a year. Housing's quickest phase, from 5.1% in 2002 to 6.6% in 2005, ran at 0.5 percentage points a year, and telecom's at around 0.15. The AI cycle is building at close to twice the pace of the housing boom at its fastest.

The same arithmetic runs in reverse: housing's unwind, from 6.2% of GDP in early 2006 to 3.0% by the end of 2008, is what made that recession severe, while telecom's much smaller reversal produced the mildest one.

A cycle that builds at 0.85 percentage points a year can unwind at a similar pace, and that, rather than the buildout itself, is the macro risk if AI demand disappoints."

apollo.com/wealth/insights-n…