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U.S. CSP capex forecast at $0.8T / $1.2T / $1.4T in 2026/27/28 with Amazon $220B…

2026-08-06 · 04:14 UTC ·@jukan05 ·2 min read

Brief

Jeff Pu projects strong CSP capex through 2028 (Amazon $220B; Google $195–205B; Meta $130–145B) with U.S. CSP spend of $0.8T/$1.2T/$1.4T in 2026–28, manageable debt and net debt-to-equity near 18% by 2029. He reiterates Nvidia memory cuts (Vera SOCAMM 192→96→64GB by 1Q27; Rubin HBM 384→192/256GB), notes NVL576 optics scale-up and forecasts 5.8M/8.1M Nvidia OE shipments in 2027/28.

Why it matters

U.S. CSP capex forecast at $0.8T / $1.2T / $1.4T in 2026/27/28 with Amazon $220B, Google $195–205B and Meta $130–145B; top‑5 debt issuance seen at $257B / $419B in 2026/27 and net debt-to-equity projected at ~18% by 2029 (net leverage ~0.5x EBITDA by 2028/29).

Key details

  • Nvidia memory reductions reiterated: Vera CPU SOCAMM cut from 192GB → 96GB → selective SKUs to 64GB by 1Q27; Rubin Ultra HBM stepped down from 384GB to 192GB/256GB (HBM4/4E); 8‑Hi design finalized while 12‑Hi remains on the lineup; competitors AMD MI450 Custom and Google TPU Humufish already use 8‑Hi.
  • Nvidia platform OE shipments estimated at 5.8M / 8.1M units in 2027/28; NVL576 with NPO optics will scale to offset reduced memory content; analyst remains positive on AI trends and prefers GPUs/CPUs/optics but is cautious on memory commodities, issuing buy calls including NVDA, INTC, AMD, MRVL, LITE, SMCI and several Taiwan optics/assembly names.
Source evidence

Some spicy info

• Net debt-to-equity ratio projected at just 18% by 2029 despite heavy capex


• Reiterate our July 2’s report of Nvidia cutting memory: Vera CPU SOCAMM from 192GB → 96GB → selective SKUs to 64GB by 1Q27

• Rubin Ultra HBM stepped down from 384GB to 192GB/256GB (HBM4/4E); 8-Hi design finalized, yet 12-Hi remains on line up

• Competitors already on lower configs: AMD MI450 Custom and Google TPU Humufish already 8-Hi

• Scale-up expanding via NVL576 w NPO optics to offset reduced memory content

Jeff Pu (@sssjeffpu)

Abstracts of Addressing Recent Debates on LT Capex and NVDA Platform Content Away from Memories

• Recent CSP Earnings Review on Capex: Amazon to $220bn, Google $195-205bn, Meta $130-145bn
• U.S. CSP capex forecast at $0.8tn/$1.2tn / $1.4tn in 2026/2027/28 (+45% / +20% YoY in 27/28), supported by healthy balance sheets
• Capex growth expected to moderate to +20% / +15% YoY in 2028/29 as CSPs prioritize returns & FCF & uncertainties over AI model competition
• Top 5 debt issuance seen at $257bn / $419bn in 2026/27 (31-35% of capex), still manageable
• Cumulative debt issuance could reach ~$421bn by 2028, yet remains well-supported
• Balance sheets stay very healthy (ex-Oracle): net leverage only ~0.5x (EBITDA basis) by 2028/29
• Net debt-to-equity ratio projected at just 18% by 2029 despite heavy capex

• Reiterate our July 2’s report of Nvidia cutting memory: Vera CPU SOCAMM from 192GB → 96GB → selective SKUs to 64GB by 1Q27
• Rubin Ultra HBM stepped down from 384GB to 192GB/256GB (HBM4/4E); 8-Hi design finalized, yet 12-Hi remains on line up
• Competitors already on lower configs: AMD MI450 Custom and Google TPU Humufish already 8-Hi
• Scale-up expanding via NVL576 w NPO optics to offset reduced memory content
• Nvidia platform OE shipments estimated at 5.8m / 8.1m units in 2027/28
• Still positive on AI trends; prefer GPU / CPU / Optics, cautious on memory commodities

Recommendations:
1) Nvidia GPU: NVDA (Buy), Hon Hai (2317 TT), SMCI (Buy)
2) CPU: INTC (Buy), AMD (Buy), ASE (3711 TT, ASX, Buy)
3) Optics NPO: LITE (Buy), MRVL (Buy), SMTC (Buy), TSEM (Buy), Bizlink (3665 TT Buy), Browave (3163 TT)

capex #NVDA #RUBIN #Memory #HBM

— https://nitter.net/sssjeffpu/status/2085217281672646706#m