DERVOS 2025: Big DERs Energy

Panelists from Google (Halley Krayo), Tesla MegaPack (Sean Jones), Duke (Tyler) and DC Grid (Vick Shao) traced how rapid AI growth is forcing a rethink of how data centers are powered. They opened on uncertainty about demand — Tyler stressed forecasts are hard and centralization may change if many inference tasks move to local devices, while Halley confirmed Google expects significant AI‑driven growth and is prioritizing an "energy‑first" site selection strategy tied to 24/7 carbon‑free goals. The group repeatedly flagged scale: the industry is moving from 100 MW class facilities toward 1 GW clusters, a jump that exceeds the historical number of one‑gigawatt point loads (the panel noted ~30 aluminum smelters globally). Moderator examples and Con Edison figures (12 GW NYC peak, ~5–6 GW average) underscored how disruptive 1 GW loads are to existing grids.

A central arc of the conversation contrasted two responses: speed‑to‑power off‑grid builds (on‑site gas, batteries, microgrids) versus faster, more flexible interconnection to the bulk grid. Sean and Vick recounted commercial drivers for on‑site batteries and temporary generation — batteries smooth fast AI load jitter (tens of Hz), provide ancillary services, and can reduce on‑site fuel burn 10–30%; Vick described how temporary power solutions often persist for years because utilities are slow. Tyler and Halley pressed the other path: new interconnection products (SPP/PGM "CHILs", Dominion cap‑flex, PG&E Flex Connect) and bounded demand flexibility could be a pragmatic bridge. They cited an E3/SPP study showing roughly 10 hours/year of controlled load reduction (4–6 hours in summer; longer in winter) can yield ELCC comparable to thermal capacity, making "quasi‑firm" products a plausible tool to unlock bulk interconnection faster.

Speakers disagreed on dominance of batteries versus thermal for long outages and on how strict SLAs must remain; Sean warned expensive AI racks (he characterized depreciation at roughly $2/kWh) make interruptions costly, pushing operators toward on‑site resources. Several proposed technical evolution — 800 V DC architectures to reduce AC/DC conversion losses — and emphasized regulators must update planning, tariff and service constructs (cost‑of‑service incentives currently favor infrastructure spending over efficiency). The panel concluded there will be no single solution: a mix of standardized, repeatable on‑site systems, batteries, conditional firm grid services, and regulatory innovation will be needed to scale compute in a way that balances speed, reliability and decarbonization.