Chamath: Google is a compounding machine and can win the entire AI stack
@chamath reacts to $GOOG dropping ~7% after raising its capex forecast to ~$200B for 2026:
“Do you know what Google's 25-year average return on invested capital has been since going public? 32%.
When you are a machine, and a group of people, and a business model that compounds money at 32% over a 20-year average, you give these guys the benefit of the doubt.
These are not people that are flying fast and loose, they are methodically investing in their edge.
They are going to get massively rewarded.
Google has an incredible search experience. They seem to be navigating this transition to use AI. They have an incredible cloud business, and they have an incredible silicon business.
The best thing that can happen to them is 500 different models proliferate, and they support all of them. Because they will make so much money at the silicon layer, they'll make so much money as the cloud provider, and they'll find a bunch of apps, including YouTube and other things, to make money from because you use the AI to target ads better or to help make better content, etc., etc.
Jason:
“Fragmentation is good for them.”
Chamath:
“Oh, it's great for them. It's a compounding machine.”
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