ArXiv

Learning Latent Memory States from Longitudinal Athlete Monitoring Data

Authors
Dae-Jin Lee
Categories
stat.CO, stat.ME, stat.ML
arXiv
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06290v1
PDF
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.06290v1

Brief

Learning Latent Memory States from Longitudinal Athlete Monitoring Data proposes the Latent Memory Table as a new unit of analysis: a table of finite-dimensional latent states produced by a memory operator applied to masked sliding histories. The approach emphasizes six validation properties and a composite quality index Q to judge recoverability, personalization, temporal coherence, interpretability, stability and reusability. Simulations and a SoccerMon Transformer case study (arXiv 2026-08-06) report Q ≈ 0.73 versus ≈ 0.40 for classical/lagged PCA baselines, and show rotation-invariant recovery metrics better identify true multivariate/personalized memory than regime-classification accuracy.

Why it matters

Introduces the Latent Memory Table: a reusable statistical object built by a memory operator that maps each masked windowed history to a finite-dimensional latent state and collects those states (with uncertainty) for downstream storage, querying and analysis; classical EWMA and related scalar summaries are reported as univariate special cases of this operator class.

Key details

  • Validation is organized around six properties—recoverability, personalization, temporal coherence, interpretability, stability and reusability—combined into a composite quality index Q; in the SoccerMon case study a Transformer-derived Latent Memory Table attained Q ≈ 0.73 versus ≈ 0.40 for classical and lagged principal-component baselines (2026-08-06 arXiv submission).
  • Simulation experiments show that Q and rotation-invariant recovery scores discriminate genuine multivariate or personalized memory mechanisms from negative controls and misspecified windows, whereas regime-classification accuracy alone fails to separate those cases.
Source evidence

Abstract

We propose a new unit of analysis for longitudinal data: the Latent Memory Table. The scientific contribution is not the encoder. It is that table, treated as a reusable statistical object on the same footing as a matrix of principal-component scores, a table of estimated random effects, or a table of predicted probabilities. We estimate a statistical table that summarizes recent longitudinal history and is intended to be stored, queried, analysed and reused throughout the statistical workflow. A memory operator maps each masked windowed history to a finite-dimensional state; collecting those states with uncertainty yields the Latent Memory Table. Validation is organized around six properties---recoverability, personalization, temporal coherence, interpretability, stability and reusability---summarized by a composite quality index (Q); the Transformer, the SoccerMon case study and the simulations exist to argue that this table deserves that status. Classical exponentially weighted moving averages and related short- and long-horizon scalar summaries arise as restricted, typically univariate special cases of the same operator class. A simulation study with known memory mechanisms shows that (Q) and rotation-invariant recovery scores discriminate genuine multivariate or personalized memory from negative controls and from misspecified windows, whereas regime classification accuracy alone does not. SoccerMon serves as an empirical case study: a constructed Latent Memory Table attains (Q\approx 0.73) versus about (0.40) for classical and lagged principal-component baselines, with incremental held-out value for some wellness targets and Procrustes ensembles for row-wise reliability.