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More than half of Canada's reported increase in exports to non‑US countries is…

2026-08-07 · 19:03 UTC ·@Afinetheorem ·1 min read

Brief

Afinetheorem warns that the oft‑cited rise in Canada's exports to non‑US partners is misleading: more than half of the increase stems from higher gold prices — gold export volumes actually fell even as prices surged. The author says policy shifts played a minor role, counterpointing Eric Lombardi’s 11% (2025) and projected 20% (end‑2026) figures.

Why it matters

More than half of Canada's reported increase in exports to non‑US countries is driven by higher gold prices; gold export volumes fell even as export values rose due to price effects.

Key details

  • The author acknowledges some policy-related export changes but says they do not account for the majority of the non‑US export growth.
  • Eric Lombardi (@EricDLombardi) tweeted that imports and exports to non‑US countries were up 11% in 2025 and could be up 20% by the end of 2026, celebrating the trend as a major achievement.
Source evidence

One more caveat on recent Canada econ. "Exports to non-US way up!" is commonly touted by Ottawa. Literally more than half of increase is due to increased gold prices - gold exports are down but price is very high. There are some policy-related export changes but this isn't it.

Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀 (@EricDLombardi)

It is fantastic that Canada is seeing strong job growth this year.

But it’s not just Canada becoming its own best customer. It’s also Canada realizing we can trade with the world!

In 2025, Imports and Exports to non-US countries were up 11 PERCENT.

By the end of 2026, we could be up 20 PERCENT in non-US trade. That is a fantastic achievement in 2 years and we should be proud.

Should we come to a long term agreement on trade with America, it will be to an even greater benefit for our economy.

Thats why it’s important to remember why we value free trade. We become more competitive when we sell to the world, and create good jobs. And we can buy products and goods from other countries that benefit consumers and businesses with better quality and lower prices.

— https://nitter.net/EricDLombardi/status/2085796424889913719#m