Weekly Dose of Optimism #205
Brief
Packy McCormick's Weekly Dose of Optimism #205 highlights a surge of hard‑tech and AI milestones: Terraform Industries is reported to be converting sunlight into hydrogen at roughly $2/kg, hinting at cheap solar hydrocarbons. Venture activity included Base Power’s $1.0B raise at a $13.0B post and Base Core launch, Hadrian’s $1.37B round at a $7.87B post (CEO Chris Power quoted), and Valar Atomics’ $1.0B equity from Sequoia plus the newsletter’s report of $200B in debt. In nuclear, Oklo achieved criticality after pursuing the NRC pathway that began with a March 2020 combined license application for an ~1.5 MWe Aurora fast reactor at INL. On AI, 'ChatGPT Astra' solved 10 major math/CS problems and leaks suggest a larger model (possibly GPT‑6) could be user‑facing soon. Tesla committed $16.8B to Terafab in Grimes County, TX, and appears to plan a free‑electron‑laser EUV source to scale lithography.
Why it matters
Terraform Industries demonstrated a sunlight-to-hydrogen approach that the newsletter reports is approaching $2/kg, a potentially disruptive route to produce hydrocarbons and refined fuels from solar energy.
Key details
- Three major funding rounds: Base Power raised $1.0B at a $13.0B post-money valuation and launched 'Base Core'; Hadrian raised $1.37B at a $7.87B post, with CEO Chris Power emphasizing hard‑tech scale; Valar Atomics closed $1.0B from Sequoia plus what the piece reports as $200B in debt financing.
- Oklo’s advanced reactor program reached criticality; the company previously submitted the first custom combined license application for an advanced reactor in March 2020 for an ~1.5 MWe Aurora fast reactor at Idaho National Laboratory and was initially returned for incompleteness.
- Large‑model progress: 'ChatGPT Astra' reportedly solved 10 significant math and CS problems, sparking chatter about an imminent bigger model (potentially GPT‑6) and practical access as soon as next week per leaker 'leo'.
- Tesla selected Grimes County, Texas for its Terafab, committing $16.8B for initial buildout to target 'over 1 terawatt of compute per year' and appears to plan a particle accelerator / free‑electron‑laser style EUV light source under the fab to compete with ASML/TSMC lithography.