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Per megawatt-hour, solar produces about 2 kg of inert, recyclable waste; coal…

2026-08-06 · 13:37 UTC ·@ChrisGloninger ·1 min read

Brief

Chris Gloninger contrasts lifecycle waste and emissions, stating solar yields ~2 kg/MWh recyclable waste versus coal’s ~90 kg/MWh toxic ash plus ~1 t CO2 and projects 54–160 million tonnes of solar panel waste (2016–2050) versus 46 billion tonnes of coal ash. Quoting Peter Clack, he warns retirements from the 2030s, limited lifespans (15–25 years) and weak recycling will force massive replacement, expanded mining and unfunded decommissioning liabilities by mid-century.

Why it matters

Per megawatt-hour, solar produces about 2 kg of inert, recyclable waste; coal produces about 90 kg of ash contaminated with arsenic, mercury and lead, plus roughly 1 tonne of CO2.

Key details

  • Cumulative projections: solar panel waste 2016–2050 is 54–160 million tonnes, while coal ash over the same window is ~46 billion tonnes; coal generates monthly what solar is projected to generate in 35 years.
  • Peter Clack warns retirements starting in the 2030s could produce ~78 million tonnes of solar and up to 200 million tonnes of wind waste by mid-century; with 15–25 year lifespans and low capacity factors, meeting firm demand requires overbuilding, batteries, transmission and backup, driving large increases in mining for steel, copper, aluminum, silicon, silver and rare earths, while closed-loop recycling and blade recycling remain largely aspirational, creating likely unfunded liabilities.
Source evidence

Every number here is real. The comparison is missing.

Per megawatt-hour, solar produces about 2 kg of inert, recyclable waste. Coal produces about 90 kg of ash laced with arsenic, mercury and lead, plus a tonne of CO2.

Cumulative solar panel waste 2016 to 2050 runs 54 to 160 million tonnes. Coal ash over the same window: 46 billion tonnes. Coal generates monthly what solar is projected to generate in 35 years.

A turbine gets replaced once every 25 years. A coal plant gets refueled every day it runs. You've described a maintenance schedule and called it a nightmare.

Peter Clack (@PeterDClack)

Growing waves of wind turbine and solar panel retirements starting in the 2030s will expose the massive physical nightmare of continuous renewal and replacement.

Cumulative waste is projected to reach 78 million tonnes for solar panels and up to 200 million tonnes for wind turbines by mid-century.

Because wind and solar have low capacity factors and finite lifespans (15–25 years), generating firm power requires significant overbuilding, backed by battery storage, transmission and costly backup energy.

Replacing this fleet on a continuous cycle guarantees an endless demand for raw materials, mining, and manufacturing.

It creates a replacement loop that will multiply mining throughput for steel, copper, aluminum, silicon, silver, rare earths and composite blade materials. Expanding to multi-terawatt scales will exacerbate existing critical mineral shortages.

Closed-loop recycling at this scale remains largely aspirational as blade composites are notoriously difficult to recycle, with large volumes historically sent to landfills. Decommissioning, and recycling infrastructure lag far behind deployment, most likely leaving behind significant unfunded liabilities.

Ultimately, these challenges will become physical, logistical and economic, reflecting the massive reality behind the ambition of the buildout.

— https://nitter.net/PeterDClack/status/2085317437982212184#m