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Microinteracti1 runs a counterfactual in which President Trump keeps the United…

2026-08-07 · 12:37 UTC ·@Microinteracti1 ·1 min read

Brief

Microinteracti1 runs a wargame where President Trump keeps America out of World War II, arguing that without mobilization the Depression persists, without GIs there is no GI Bill, without U.S. rebuilding Europe there are no reconstruction contracts and the dollar never becomes the reserve currency (Bretton Woods occurs in Montreal), and without wartime R&D Silicon Valley never emerges, producing a resentful, mid-ranked U.S. likened to pre-1913 Argentina.

Why it matters

Microinteracti1 runs a counterfactual in which President Trump keeps the United States out of World War II, and as a result the U.S. never becomes a superpower.

Key details

  • Key causal chain claimed: no wartime mobilization means the Great Depression never truly ends; no returning GIs means no GI Bill; no U.S. rescue of Europe means no reconstruction contracts and the dollar never becomes the reserve currency because Bretton Woods happens in Montreal; no wartime research means no Silicon Valley.
  • The hypothetical outcome is a 'vast, resentful, mid-ranked country' that explains stagnation by accusing others of cheating; the author compares this to Argentina, which was the richest country per capita in 1913, and says the wargame includes a larger second case study.
Source evidence

In our new scenario we run one brutal premise to its end: President Trump keeps America out of World War II, and so America never becomes a superpower.

Because superpower status was built out of the war America fought. No mobilization means the Depression never truly ends. No GIs means no GI Bill. No rescued Europe means no reconstruction contracts and no dollar as reserve currency, because Bretton Woods happens in Montreal. No war research means no Silicon Valley.

Behind the president’s tariff wall sits a vast, resentful, mid-ranked country explaining its stagnation by insisting everyone else cheats.

In 1913, the richest country per capita on earth was Argentina. Careers have been built explaining what went wrong. In our wargame, the second case study is bigger. Link below.👇

open.substack.com/pub/gandal…