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@cremieuxrecueil (posted 2026-08-07) endorses Arthur Herman's claim that allowing…

Brief

User @cremieuxrecueil (Aug 7, 2026) backs Arthur Herman's argument that the real clash with China is over AI and energy dominance, not a conventional invasion of Taiwan, warning that letting China buy U.S. chips hands them a near-certain win and urging immediate construction of 20 Terafabs to preserve an advantage.

Why it matters

@cremieuxrecueil (posted 2026-08-07) endorses Arthur Herman's claim that allowing China to buy U.S. chips would turn the AI race into a pure manufacturing/building competition that China will "almost-certainly" win.

Key details

  • The post demands an immediate domestic foundry buildout: "We need 20 Terafabs and we need them yesterday," calling for 20 terafabrication plants.
  • Arthur Herman argues the primary strategic threat from China is competition for AI and energy dominance, not a kinetic Taiwan invasion; he claims China prefers incremental absorption of Taiwan and has avoided direct kinetic conflict with the U.S.
Source evidence

He's right.

And if we do something idiotic like allowing China to buy our chips, then the AI race becomes a pure building competition that China will almost-certainly win.

We cannot afford to wait around. We need 20 Terafabs and we need them yesterday.

MTS (@MTSlive)

Arthur Herman on why China's real threat is not a Taiwan invasion but the race for AI and energy dominance:

"A lot of the energy and time is spent focused on the possibility of a kinetic conflict over the Straits of Taiwan. We're missing what the larger picture is. China's interest in launching such a kinetic conflict, win, lose, or draw, are overwhelmingly unfavorable to the outcome they want."

"The outcome they want is to absorb Taiwan, not to conquer it or destroy it. To make it piece by piece, step by step, part of the larger communist enterprise."

"If China really were hell-bent on bringing about a kinetic conquest of Taiwan, they would have taken advantage of our engagement in Iran and in the Straits of Hormuz a long time ago. But they didn't do it because tangling with America in any kind of kinetic conflict is a much more difficult proposition than they want to take on."

"The big picture is the race for AI dominance, the race for energy dominance. That's where the real struggle with China is going to be played out. That's where we've got the real advantage."
@ArthurLHerman

Video

— https://nitter.net/MTSlive/status/2085809886471102948#m