Something is shifting inside the Republican Party.
Donald Trump’s endorsement used to be close to a guarantee in a Republican primary.
On May 27, his record was perfect: 118 endorsements, 118 wins, 0 losses.
Then the war with Iran dragged on. The promised quick victory never came. Costs rose, Trump’s approval fell and Americans grew steadily more dissatisfied with the war.
And the perfect record started to break.
June 2: Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra lost the Republican primary for governor of Iowa.
June 16: Trump-endorsed Burt Jones lost the Republican runoff for governor of Georgia.
By July 8, Trump’s overall endorsement record had slipped to 220 wins and 7 losses – about 97%.
The losses have continued.
August 4: Trump-endorsed Amir Hassan lost his Republican congressional primary in Michigan.
August 6: Trump-endorsed Congressman Andy Ogles lost his Republican primary in Tennessee, 53.2% to 46.8%. Ogles is a sitting member of Congress carrying the endorsement, and Republican primary voters removed him anyway.
Set that against public opinion on the war.
When the strikes began, 55% of Republicans supported them. By June, Trump’s overall approval had dropped to 35%, only 29% of Americans approved of his handling of Iran and just 25% believed the war was worth its costs. Support among Americans now sits at 35%.
Correlation is not causation, and there are other explanations. Some of these candidates were weak. Some faced well-funded opponents. Trump’s headline win percentage is inflated anyway, because he endorses a large number of incumbents who would win regardless.
But the direction is worth watching.
The question is whether the endorsement still moves Republican voters in races that are actually competitive.
For years Republican politicians avoided crossing Trump because his endorsement could end a career. If that leverage is weakening while an unpopular war drags on, it matters far more than a handful of lost primaries.