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Ben Bajarin claims token prices are currently moderating enterprise diffusion of…

2026-08-06 · 14:38 UTC ·@BenBajarin ·1 min read

Brief

Ben Bajarin argues that token prices are currently throttling enterprise AI adoption and preventing much higher compute demand. Zephyr expands that global inference capacity is concentrated—DeepSeek/Kimi/Zhipu <400 MW vs. Ant/OAI >6 GW—with hyperscalers dominating capacity; Meta/xAI (3–4 GW) could trigger a near‑term price war, while on‑prem open‑model clusters represent the longer‑term disruption Jensen Huang favors.

Why it matters

Ben Bajarin claims token prices are currently moderating enterprise diffusion of AI—if token pricing were different ('catered') compute-demand pressure would be much higher.

Key details

  • Zephyr asserts the market is capacity-constrained: DeepSeek, Kimi, and Zhipu have under 400 MW combined while Ant/OAI have over 6 GW; hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) and their investors control the majority of global inference capacity, so closed‑source lab revenue isn't a major worry.
  • Zephyr warns the near-term threat to Ant/OAI is Meta/xAI (3–4 GW) potentially starting a price war, while the long‑term threat is enterprises adopting open models on‑prem with mini clusters—a shift Jensen Huang reportedly wants to reduce customer concentration risk.
Source evidence

Token prices, for the time being, are helping us moderate enterprise diffusion of AI. If prices catered we would see compute demand pressure magnitudes higher than it is today.

Zephyr (@zephyr_z9)

They don't have enough inference capacity to fulfil demand, so they are trying to raise prices and destroy demand
One of the reasons why I'm not worried about closed-source lab revenue is that they or their investors (hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft) control the majority of global inference capacity
DeepSeek, Kimi, Zhipu (have less than 400MW of combined compute capacity) can't challenge Ant/OAI (have over 6GW of compute)
The real threat for Ant/OAI is a company like Meta/xAI (have 3-4 GW of compute) starting a price war in the near term
The long-term threat is on-prem adoption of open models with enterprises setting up mini clusters (Jensen wants this to happen as it reduces customer concentration risk)

— https://nitter.net/zephyr_z9/status/2085274310982398408#m