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Operating costs for delivering AI capabilities are collapsing into energy costs…

Brief

Neoclouds are positioned to capture outsized economics by monetizing constrained power: a chart cited by the author shows SpaceX generating ~$30–50M per active megawatt, CoreWeave/Nebius/IREN around $9.4–$10.4M/MW, and legacy colocations like Digital Realty/Equinix only $3.5–$4.4M/MW. The mechanism is rising GPU rental prices and supply tightness — one-year H100 contracts rose ~40% from $1.70/hr in Oct 2025 to $2.60/hr by Aug 2026, Blackwell B200 on-demand runs $4.99–$18/hr, and providers like Lambda and Verda have publicly raised rates. With GPU lead times of 36–52 weeks and Gartner forecasting power constraints for 40% of AI data centers by 2027, neoclouds that secure power and deploy hardware can convert each megawatt into far more revenue with minimal additional capex, extending hardware ROI and widening the spread versus traditional colocation.

Why it matters

Operating costs for delivering AI capabilities are collapsing into energy costs; the author argues monetizing each watt is now the key metric and claims a potential 1000x efficiency shift will make watts dramatically more valuable.

Key details

  • Revenue per active megawatt varies massively: SpaceX ~$30–$50 million/MW, neoclouds like CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN ~$9.4–$10.4 million/MW, and legacy colocations such as Digital Realty and Equinix ~$3.5–$4.4 million/MW — implying significant upside if neoclouds push rates higher.
  • GPU rental rates have risen sharply: one-year H100 contract rates jumped ~40% from $1.70/GPU-hour in October 2025 to $2.60 by August 2026; on-demand Blackwell B200 pricing sits at ~$4.99–$18/GPU-hour; Lambda raised published pricing from $2.99 to $4.29/hr and Verda from $2.29 to $3.25/hr.
  • Tight supply and constrained power drive the economics: GPU lead times run 36–52 weeks, Gartner expects power to limit 40% of AI data centers by 2027, and the result is a self-reinforcing cycle where higher GPU prices increase return on deployed GPUs, extend hardware useful life, and let neoclouds convert fixed megawatts into much higher revenue with minimal additional capex.
Source evidence

These are the economics that are going to be crazy once @unconvAI gets to product. Silicon people obsess over cost to deliver a capability. However, the operating costs are converging to energy costs; the name of the game is monetizing each watt maximally.
1000x efficiency just changes this whole game. Watts will just get a whole lot more valuable!

Melvin (@MelvinInvests)

This chart is the single best argument for why neoclouds are about to print money (Save this).

SpaceX is generating between $30 million and $50 million in annualized revenue for every active megawatt of compute capacity, while pure play neoclouds like CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN sit in the $9.4 million to $10.4 million range.

Traditional colocation players like Digital Realty and Equinix trail even further behind at $3.5 million to $4.4 million per MW.

That gap matters because it shows exactly how much upside exists if neoclouds can push their revenue per MW closer to the top of that range and the mechanism that gets them there is simple: GPU rental pricing.

GPU lease rates have been rising fast which is the opposite of what most people assume about a commoditized rental market.

One year H100 contract rates jumped nearly 40%, from a low of $1.70 per GPU hour in October 2025 to $2.60 by now.

This is essentially a self reinforcing cycle where tightening supply drives price increases and those price increases push neoclouds to lock in more hardware which tightens supply again.

On demand pricing is even more extreme because every GPU model is essentially sold out on demand right now, with Blackwell generation B200 pricing running $4.99 to $18 per GPU hour depending on provider.

Several neoclouds have already started raising published rates rather than cutting them, with Lambda moving from $2.99 to as high as $4.29 an hour and Verda climbing from $2.29 to $3.25.

This pricing power flows directly into that revenue per MW chart, because every megawatt of power a neocloud controls becomes more valuable the higher GPU rental rates climb.

Rising rental prices expand return on invested capital for deployed GPUs and extend the economic useful life of existing hardware, meaning neoclouds squeeze more cash flow out of the same physical footprint before needing to reinvest.

That's the real bull case underneath the chart because power and megawatts are the scarce, fixed input, since Gartner expects power constraints to limit 40% of AI data centers by 2027, while GPU lead times already run 36 to 52 weeks.

If a neocloud already has power secured and GPUs deployed, rising per GPU hour pricing translates almost directly into rising revenue per megawatt with minimal added capex and that's precisely why CoreWeave, Nebius, and peers sit so far above legacy colocation players on this chart.

Colocation companies just rent out space and power but neoclouds capture the pricing upside of the actual compute running on top of it, and as GPU scarcity persists, that spread between neoclouds and traditional colocation should only keep widening.

Bullish on Neoclouds, make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure insights and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.

— https://nitter.net/MelvinInvests/status/2085354154990747820#m