Information Is Infrastructure with Nat Bullard (Part 1)

Nat Bullard uses his decades in energy research to describe two converging trends: (1) an explosion of public unstructured regulatory text (interconnection filings, rate cases, NPRRs, discovery responses) that contains high‑value operational and cost detail, and (2) new generative‑AI and LLM workflows that can ingest, normalize and continuously track that information. His startup Halcyon is built to do both discovery (ad‑hoc cross‑jurisdiction search) and cadence‑based delivery (monthly trackers that surface verified, costed, disclosed metrics such as gas‑plant CPCN filings, energization dates, and change logs). Technically, Halcyon pulls documents across federal/state/jurisdictional sources, layers structured abstractions where repeated queries indicate programmatic outputs, and runs routines monthly today with the stated goal of moving toward near‑real‑time change logs.

Bullard highlights concrete examples where this information asymmetry matters. In Texas he flags a striking divergence: ERCOT’s data‑center load projection (~22 GW by 2030) versus TSP aggregated assumptions (~78 GW), while ERCOT’s current summer peak sits near 85.5 GW. That gap matters for transmission siting and capex because TSPs have incentives to plan for larger growth while ERCOT aims to plan to least‑cost reliability — and developers commonly file multi‑site plans that must be 'deduped.' Texas regulators have opened dockets (referenced in the interview as ~58480 for load forecasting and ~58481 for financial assurance) and passed SB6 to force better disclosure and require some financial commitment from developers so only credible projects drive build decisions. On generation costs, Bullard (with GridLab data) reports revealed CPCN‑sourced numbers showing combined‑cycle gas plants averaging roughly $2,000–$2,500/kW and combustion‑turbines ~$1,200–$1,400/kW; turbine OEM lead times and manufacturing constraints mean used/relocated turbines are being re‑deployed but overall supply is tight and prices are likely to remain elevated for years. He also touches on broader geopolitical/market implications — notably the Chinese auto complex and rapid EV export growth — to show how cross‑border industrial shifts interact with electricity demand forecasts.

Taken together, Bullard argues the practical path forward is continuous, machine‑assisted monitoring, rigorous sourcing (CPCNs, filings, bids/asks where possible), deduplication across applications, and regulatory changes that force better verification so transmission investment and merchant development align with realized demand rather than optimistic portfolios of speculative sites.