Polymarket opened a market asking whether a nation that has never won the World Cup will win in 2026. The author lists prior winners — Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, Spain — and calculates the implied win probability for all other teams at 34.5%, while the market prices that outcome at 29%. They view the market as potentially undervalued and specifically warns that Portugal, which has never won, could upset that pricing.
Among 2026 participants, only seven nations have previously won the World Cup: Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, and Spain.
New polymarket: will a nation that has never won the World Cup win in 2026?
The most interesting part is that among the participating teams, only these nations have won it before: Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England, and Spain
If you count the win probabilities of all the other teams, you get 34.5%. Meanwhile, this market is currently priced at 29%
No looks interesting to buy, but Portugal worries me a lot since they’ve never won the World Cup