677. Can Backgammon Save Us from Ourselves?

Backgammon serves in this episode as both a literal game and a lens on decision‑making, community and technological change. Stephen Dubner opens at the recent New York Metropolitan Backgammon Open (January, Jersey City), where more than 400 players — including world stars like Masayuki “Mochi” Mochizuki — gathered. Mochi’s early elimination and subsequent money games illustrate the core theme: backgammon marries active skill with unavoidable luck. Players from hobbyists to grandmasters (Melissa Shin, Bob Wachtell, Mark Olson, Frank Frigo) repeatedly described the game as a condensed training ground for probabilistic thinking, timing and emotional control; Frigo summed it up by linking the doubling cube’s strategic leverage to life decisions and to the very real tradeoffs coaches face in the NFL.

The episode tracks two parallel arcs: a social renaissance and a technical revolution. On the social side, Remy Davenport has built the NYC Backgammon Club and a multi‑city league that grew from 64 to 235 participants, pushing a return to in‑person play and more inclusive club culture (she notes women still comprise roughly 10% of tournament fields). Bob Wachtell reminisces about the 1970s–80s glamour and hustle—Hefner‑era celebrity tables and high stakes—which contrasts with today’s normalized scene. On the technical side, hosts and guests describe a transformation driven by neural‑network engines (TD‑Gammon lineage), analysis tools like XG (acquired recently by Travis Kalanek) and platforms such as Backgammon Galaxy (Mark Olson: ~220,000 users, 25 employees). Those tools have raised the top level of play, made mistake rates measurable and shifted how people learn the game. Frigo also explains a concrete spillover: he and a cofounder built a detailed NFL simulation, licensed by roughly a dozen teams (including involvement with the Eagles and Chiefs), arguing that a backgammon‑style objective function — maximizing win probability, not naive risk aversion — reshaped fourth‑down decision making. The guests generally agree on backgammon’s value as a mind sport and social glue, but they differ in tone: some celebrate the measured, study‑driven professionalism of today, while others (Wachtell) mourn the vanished volatility and color of the old money‑game era.