Rough estimate on $ productivity lost by Fable 5 ban: $12M per hour
Frontier AI-coding daily actives, mid-2026: 5M devs
Fully-loaded cost: $90/hr
Work routed to Fable in 48 hours: 17.8%
Fable is on average ~15% more productive
Effective throughput loss per dev = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 2.7% of output
2.7% × $90/hr = ~$2.40/dev/hr × 5M devs = $12M per working hour