Abstract
This paper develops local certificates for population-risk increments around a current model. For a local candidate set (\mathcal D), the certificate is a two-sided confidence band for (P({\ell_{θ+v}-\ell_θ})) over (v\in\mathcal D). As an application, the upper endpoint of this band yields a risk-controlled update rule: an update is accepted only when its certified upper endpoint is nonpositive; otherwise the current model is retained.
Comment: 35 pages, 6 figures