This is a far more interesting look at the US-Iran MOUs implication that the howling from right and left against Trump's decision.
Niall Ferguson (@nfergus)
“Before I join in the swelling chorus of former Obama and Biden officials rushing to write op-eds denouncing the MOU, or the Middle East hawks decrying it as an instrument of U.S. surrender, it is important to remember that a piece of paper by itself is not a peace. For peace is made as much by actions as by words—and as much by the unforeseen consequences of diplomacy as by the intended ones.
“The Trump administration prides itself on its realism. That is why key figures seem to feel no compunction about pulling the plug on the Israelis, and deeply disappointing many of their Arab friends in the Persian Gulf, too. Yet Trump is as much at the mercy of unpredictable historical events as [Woodrow] Wilson before him.
“Right now, Trump’s 14 Points look as wretched as Wilson’s 14 Points looked splendid in 1918. But who can be sure what lies ahead? What if the most perilous time for Iran’s horrible regime is not when it is under intense bombardment, but when it makes peace and smells the approach of boatloads of money? What if, at the same time, it turns out that the IRGC’s equally blood-soaked confederate, Vladimir Putin, is in deeper trouble than we realize with his war in Ukraine? And what if the reason oil prices didn’t go even higher than they did in the past four months is that China’s domestic economy is in free fall, as some numbers indicate?
“What if, in short, President Trump’s luck holds—as it has held so often throughout his 80 years of often reckless risk-taking?
“In the end, the wording of this lousy memorandum of understanding may matter less than the second- and third-order consequences of Trump’s Iran war. The economic consequences to date have certainly been far less damaging than I foresaw earlier in the conflict. Maybe, just maybe, the same will turn out to be true of the geopolitical consequences.”
— https://nitter.net/nfergus/status/2067521228064096549#m